Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts

Sunday 3 December 2017

Analysis - What Is Wrong with Prime Minister May?

I suspect we all now understand that May is neither particularly a Remainer or a Brexiter. She is an administrator, one whose allegiance is to the State machine and whose recent political training has entirely been within the formal structures of the security apparat as Home Secretary. I write 'within' because it is an eternal truth of British politics that elected representatives are almost invariably captured by the State they are elected to oversee. Sometimes a politician can rise above the machinations of Sir Humphrey. Theresa May is not one of those politicians. 

As a former Home Secretary and now Prime Minister, being 'captured by the security state' is where she is most comfortable. This limited horizon is why she has handed over the economy to a weak Chancellor who is beholden to the City. She cowers whenever Gove, Davis and Johnson show some serious political spine (quite rare but perhaps effective, at the least, in keeping the Brexit show on the road). Even as Tory Party Chair, her instinct was to centralise at the expense of constituencies. Centralising power in a command-and-control system is where her instinct lies and yet this is precisely the approach, suitable for the twentieth century militarised welfare-warfare state, that is no longer possible in the age of the internet.

She certainly lacks the common touch, presents herself as a decent and well-meaning school mistress (that is, indeed, an administrator) and now presides over a situation where an Opposition Party that clearly opposes the will of the majority of the English on Brexit and is led by a man who was a political pariah within the PLP until only a few years ago is riding high on 45% of the national vote while her Party languishes, seen as incompetent and confused.

The problem with administrators is that they lack imagination. It is good that administrators lack imagination. They are there to execute the orders of those who have an imagination. But politicians are generally not good at solving national crises without an imagination. An excess of imagination, of course, gives us loons and tyrants but a complete absence of imagination gives us ... our current Prime Minister. 

And why is imagination so vital at this time in our history? Because the tectonic plates of international economic and political relations are shifting. She now represents an administrative class that has one of its feet so firmly stuck in the deep mud of the past that it cannot get close to planting the other on the dry land of the future. The problem arises because our security apparat, our state machine, is driven by four perceptual models that no longer entirely hold water: 

  • a primitive geopolitical fear of Russia and a desire to contain Germany which has been institutionalised from the Imperial era and the last century respectively (the first is paranoid although the second still relevant)
  • the realisation that it does not have the tools and can never have the tools to do more than contain violent political fanaticism yet must never admit this to the general public - basically, it is bluffing its way to offering us security as citizens; 
  • the fear of the crumbling of the Union, either by Celts pushing their luck (as we see in the nonsense of a nation of just over 4m people trying to dictate terms to one fifteen times its size)) or the English wondering why they are spending so much of their hard-earned cash on stopping the Celts pushing their luck (the English being, here, like sheep led to the budgetary slaughter); and 
  • a cynical, manipulative view of Washington where a lumbering giant is supposed to be lead by the nose into serving British interests through a combination of charm and prostitution (i.e. the gleanings of our expensive and barely controllable intelligence apparat).  
These perceptual models, embedded in the group think of our ruling caste, were neatly resolved by the European tyranny since that caste has never really cared about democracy at core (its rhetorical allegiance to the idea hides a deep fear of its reality). They care only about the Crown and preferment. The Crown is a weird ideological concept that means not our Dynasty or Harry and Meghan but the precise functioning of the State: the Crown is the fig-leaf that hides the workings of an unaccountable machine that purports to know what it is doing but clearly does not. The strategy of the Crown towards the European Project has seemed simple enough:  

  • the EU was to be manipulated to contain Germany (yeah, right!) and to underpin the push-back of Russia;
  • intelligence co-operation and Euro-ideology were supposed to help contain fanaticism even if Islamism was not understood to be truly different from the native subversive threats of communism and fascism; 
  • the Celts were to be neatly contained within a Crown sphere of influence within the EU (violence in Northern Ireland wags the tail of the British dog no less than memories of Vietnam wag the American foreign policy tail); 
  • access to Europe would increase the Crown's muscle power in Washington. 
Unfortunately, the viability of this total perceptual model has crumbled since the crash of 2008 with which our administrative State has still not come to terms. Its economic 'perceptual models' have also failed consistently to provide either recovery or fairness. This has nothing to do with Brexit - indeed, Brexit is just a reflection of this crumbling, a process that most of the political and media class has still not understood. Most of us may now agree that the analysis provided daily by the second rate minds haunting the corridors of the BBC is laughable. Many of our most prominent commentators provide little more than prejudiced rants with no serious understanding of the political vulcanism of our times. Now, I listen to Spotify in preference to BBC News.

Let us take the first issue - the geo-strategic politics of Europe. Germany has been far from contained by the European Union as we saw in its treatment of Greece. British geld has simply strengthened an institution that is the tool of Berlin, backed by a France that has never ceased to loathe us, certainly since we sank its fleet and chased it out of Syria in the last major war. As for Russia, despite the sustained hysteria of the last Tory country gentlemen left in the FCO and the 'Service', it is not realistically a threat any more to anything West of the Pripyat Marshes. It is simply and defensively struggling to maintain its own ramshackle underpopulated empire, turning back a Western neo-Cold War operation that does not hide its ambition to get ultimately to the very gates of Moscow itself through subversion. 

Someone needs to tell the Cold Warriors that India can now defend itself and British interests do not extend to being dragged into a global conflagration to defend countries on the other side of the Continent. If anything, Russia might now be seen as a point of containment of a rising Franco-German European Union, preferably in association with Washington. NATO (a genuinely defensive operation in its original intention but now the militarised wing of global liberalism) is now threatened by the creation of a European Army in a culture that is not really very afraid of the tyranny of peacetime conscription. We, the people, are constantly being drawn into confrontation with Russia by neo-Cold War 'hawks' at a time when the public wants Islamism, not neo-nationalist post-communism, dealt with as the primary threat.   

As to the second issue (violent extremism), we do not have to belabour the point that its emergence derives from the sustained blundering of our political class over a century or so. We know that much just as we know that the 2008 Crash was the creation of economic blundering over a much shorter period. But that was then and this is now. The question is what to do about it? Is there the imagination to understand causes, remedies and consequences? 

Open borders were at the very centre of the terror problem as far as the public were concerned and there is a wisdom of crowds in this. Germany accentuated the difficulties with a primitive liberal ideological response to what was, in fact, always going to end up an exploitation of weakness by organised crime. It is organised crime that has created the gaps in the system which allow the violent extremist a sea in which to swim. The British State, always under pressure from unhelpful French models of preferring brutality towards dissent over engagement with dissenters, was split between those who saw that borders were part of the process of dealing with the security problem (even if the borders had to be Libya and Turkey) and those who thought security co-operation was more important than borders. 

Perhaps our Prime Minister is instinctively in the latter camp. The balance certainly tipped towards security co-operation when Merkel sold the pass in an excess of ideological insanity to deal with a humanitarian crisis in precisely the wrong way. It would have been much better to have invested in working with Assad to bring a fair peace and in the camps themselves. Migrant pressure, helped by trafficking operations, spread outwards, accentuating an already problematic 'schwerpunkt' in Calais. The truth is illegals with cash have always found a way in, straining our urban infrastructures but knowing that eventually they would be in a state of de facto amnesty, creating a constituency for political opportunists in the urban centres. 

The security apparat pretty well knows where the centres of potential terrorism are in our cities as far as they come from our old imperial connections - what they do not know necessarily is who these new people are. The problem may not be terrorism at all. Most of them contain the seeds of criminal gangs of far more psychopathic brutality than any we have seen to date, perhaps quite capable of undertaking 'terrorist acts' to force a weak state on the defensive and cut a deal. The French terror cases and the history of Al-Qaeda have shown the overlap already between petty criminality and terror acts. 

Ask any native of South East London about the war between the Albanian and Turkish gangs and how they 'came to a deal' and you get a picture of something going on that is clearly being defensively covered up by a mainstream media whose investigative skills now operate at the level of Mickey Mouse. Hours of coverage with the weaselly phrase  'despite Brexit' and virtually none about what is going on in the inner cities - Rotherham and Grenfell Tower are mere tips of icebergs of social dissolution.

And, third, we have the bubble of Celtic posturing. This has been burst (though you would not know it from the flaccidity and weakness of the Government towards the Celts) by a) the Scottish Referendum, b) the rise of a new conservatism in Wales and c) the evident hysteria coming out of an Ireland that has no serious leverage on the UK other than vague threats of a revival of terror when the conditions for terrorism no longer actually exist (except as tactics by criminal gangs). 

On the other hand (though its impetus is studiously held in contempt by our urban liberal administrators and the Opposition who depend on their votes) Brexit has shown the reality of a simmering English country resentment about enforced cultural change and the emergence of a growing new and allegedly 'fascist' threat from the indigenes outside London. In fact, there are fascist elements but the 'threat' is populist and only to the dominant failed ideology. The EU has now become part of a more general cultural problem in which a minority of Celts act with multicultural London, the public sector middle classes and the universities as a standing insult to the aspirations of 'sheep' (classed as 'deplorables' to use the term of Hillary Clinton about the American working class) that are growing the first signs of fangs.

Fourth, there is our American ally which has been turned over (possibly temporarily) by a form of maniacal populism that reflects the revolts amongst the English and many regionalised (Catalonia/Lombardy) and post-communist European middling States (Hungary/Poland/now Austria) where the cultural threat from Islam and the failures of elite liberalism's cultural hegemony are seen as far more important than any putative threat from the old dark native ideologies. Even in major states, populist movements are only manouevred out of formal power by the liberal establishment's control of the commanding heights of narrative and by political sleight of hand, placing a radical centrist cypher in charge of France while still trying to create a coalition of the Centre in Germany. 

Populism may be denied the oxygen of publicity within the elite but it has not been defeated. Populists are, in fact, proving surprisingly resilient against huge cultural onslaughts that seem to do no more than define camps rather than actually push back the tide. Only in the UK has a conservative establishment partially absorbed populism or at least appeared to do so until this week as the potential for a betrayal of Brexit begins to hit home amongst the English. It has only accommodated populism a) because it has had to absorb the vote of 17.4m people, again mostly English, who decided they wanted Brexit and b) it faces a populist socialist threat which does not exist anywhere else.  So, Washington is no longer bulwark of a shared liberal internationalist order but is a tiger to be ridden alongside the domestic wolf of an increasingly bitter and angry native populism. 

May's Government is now sailing very close to the wind in acceding to the rhetoric of its opposition while its deeper substance remains committed to the new order. I am not a Tory but Tory activists are telling me that they are enraged by the way their Leader is conceding ground to the past and not taking the lead in developing a national strategy for the future.
  
The national problem is that we have a weak Government still over-influenced by a security apparat with one foot in the past. This Government is trying to represent new forces but within a national narrative structure that is also embedded in the past and where its defenders (the 'conservatives of the centre') are now getting vicious in defence of a collapsing order. We have a Prime Minister who is part of that failed state apparat and is increasingly at sea and unpopular. The Opposition now scents blood in the water but it can't find a way to oust her under current political conditions ... and so it is becoming increasingly shrill, threatening to alienate the very new forces it needs to ride to power itself. 

The best solution would be a stronger 'new forces' Prime Minister from the Right to see us through the Brexit negotiations and a transformative and intellectually coherent Left to exploit the opportunities yet the dead weight of the old guard in both parties forestalls such outcomes. The country certainly can't cope with much more instability and viciousness. 

So there we are - a second rate Prime Minister trying to cope with new social forces, an opportunistic and hysterical Opposition that does not know what it wants other than power and a changed global condition in which the entity with which we are contesting, the European Union, is beginning to fall apart at the seams for reasons that actually have little to do with Brexit but which Brexit is hastening. She really has to go ... but only if the Tory Right can deliver someone with imagination to deliver national sovereignty, some serious economic growth and greater fairness.

Thursday 22 June 2017

A Very Personal Conclusion About Recent Events

Position Reserved, at various times, has been an outlet for exploring a variety of cultural and political issues of interest to me as well as a means of putting my case and the facts in controversial areas where the mainstream media have failed to 'get it right'. I am, with perhaps just very rare future interventions 'for the record', reducing activity, not only because of pressure of work but also because I may have run out of things to say in public. This posting says most of what I have left to say until the world changes again: then my opinions may have to change in response. From now on, you are likely to get only very rare personal ruminations as the mood takes me, maybe odd discussions of obscure academic papers that don't fit with my Goodreads account or anywhere else and, of course, statements of fact if some malign media half-wit decides to have another go at me.

There are three great lessons learned from several years of writing these posts.

First, that search for some special meaning in the world is pretty futile. The world is as it is. It should be understood just as it is. This is not simply a matter of having a prejudice towards science but having an essential scepticism towards all human narratives. The questions have always to be - who invented the narrative and for what purpose and who is using the narrative and why as well as whether a narrative is true. Truth is a sticky issue. Many facts are not recoverable. All facts are interpretable. A moderate scepticism about all stories we tell ourselves, while understanding that narratives are still necessary for society to function, is the way forward.

The end game is thus detachment but with a degree of compassion for peoples' need to tell stories and a decision somewhere along the line to construct a workable but flexible story for oneself that best accords with the facts of one's condition in life. In my case, my narrative is rather workaday. Having exhausted most evenues surrounding the magical and the spiritual and the ideological, I am really perfectly happy just to go with the flow now and maintain an ethic of civilised survival. My core values are what they always were - a mish-mash of existentialism, libertarianism and basic compassion for the weakest and most troubled.

Second, the melange of social narratives criss-crossing our culture and competing with each other have now gone beyond a joke. It is easy to condemn the dreamers and ideologues as stupid but even the most formally intelligent seem to have extended their psychological flaws and preferences into complex systems and structures that seek to bend reality to their will. There is nothing more deviantly sinister than the human ego that denies that it is an ego. Again, detachment and a determination to stand one's ground with one's own story, while being questioning about its own validity against the facts, is easily the best stance. Social existence is a brutal struggle within a framework of accepted conventions and order and it should be seen as such. It cannot be otherwise and those looking for reason and perfection are doomed to disappointment.  Two areas of recent life brought this into focus.

The Exaro experience, whether good or bad in the sum, demonstrated the degree to which power manipulates narrative. The conduct of the mainstream media in this matter made me understand, without condoning, the resistance of populists to the claim that their propagandistic fake news was actually any worse than the constant devious manipulation of the MSM. It often struck me that the MSM's real gripe with Trump was that he was exposing their monopoly of falsehoods by simply making what they do subtly be done more crassly.

Fortunately the internet permits the individual to challenge the MSM on the record (which is what I have done on several occasions) knowing that, while the exercise is rather futile, the bulk of MSM coverage is equally transient and distrusted by anyone with half a brain. At least there are now many voices telling half-truths and porkie pies rather than just a few with presumed authority - that is progress of a sort since the detached observer can now compare far more narratives and then use their judgment to come up with some rough approximation of reality.Admittedly, most apparently highly educated people seem to have a problem with their judging faculty but, hey (as Tony Blair used to say), you can't have everything.

The second area of interest was and remains transhumanism which I intend to remain involved with, albeit in my classically detached way. This is a school of thought of considerable importance in translating the coming technological revolution into sets of questions that need asking and which still pass most politicians by. This community has produced creative ideas around the application of innovation like cryptocurrencies and technologies like automation. It has promoted ideas that are now being looked at by policy-makers such as Universal Basic Income. It has also created, however, some insanely apocalyptic thinking about existential risk and a quasi-religious narrative that can make practical men like me cringe with embarrassment.

And why? Because too many of the enthusiastic nerds and engineers involved still read too much science fiction and find themselves driven by their own extrapolations and weak understanding of 'really existing humans' rather by any understanding of social and political reality. Still, although the hysteria surrounding these communities and their often shambolic organisation is a bit depressing at times, nevertheless, these are the people throwing up all the ideas now about the possibilities for humanity, ideas that correct our stupid belief in certainties. Square the flaccid complacent folk culture of the establishment with the trans-human lunacies and you might yet get to see a pathway to understanding future probabilities.

Finally, there is politics. Oh my God, politics! This has become the art of posturing one's story as if your powerlessness mattered, at least as far as most social media discourse is concerned. Most people simply do not understand the nature of power and how to use it. They cannot accept that simply having strong opinions is too often just posturing that expresses psychological anxieties or is a primitive demand for respect in the ape-like world of social competition yet moves the world not one jot forward. We all have opinions but few of us truly understand where power actually lies, when and where we can make some small difference and how acquiring more power by its very nature shapes us into the victims of our own wielding of it if we are not aware of what is happening to us. We all need to make positive decisions on how to use the little power that we have effectively and with full understanding of probable consequences.

I have come to the view that politics must be treated either as a cynical game played by moral inadequates (which is not to my taste) or be considered as an expression of core sentiments and values, beyond conventional morality, where one chooses rationally to see through the expression of our prejudices according to the power that one actually has. There are people out there who we should not want to have any power because of their intrinsic irrationalities and cruelties. Representative national democracy still strikes me as the best means of keeping these wolves off our backs even if our representatives are deeply flawed and not always the sharpest tools in the box.

Most people's values are rarely thought about, contradictory and situational but they do make up who we are and democracy squares millions of confused world views into something broadly consensual. Reforming the machinery of it all (as liberal nerds want to do) is less important than reforming the informations flows and education that enable people to make better judgments in their own interest and according to their own values. Even sociopaths have rights in this respect if only to balance out those dangerous radical empaths who think so much of themselves. To cut the posturing, I certainly put the economic and personal survival of myself and my immediate family first and anyone who doesn't do the same is already probably someone who needs to be kept an eye on.

Beyond that, I have a hierarchy of values which include the general sanctity of life (a Catholic upbringing), a loathing of bullying and sympathy for the underdog, a gut patriotism for soil though not blood, a distaste for people who break promises without clear explanation, a distaste for the use of secrecy to gain advantage and a prejudice against all forms of abstract universalism. There is also a belief in the benefit of pragmatic non-ideological flexibility that permits opinions and actions to change easily with new information. Part of that pragmatism is that you cannot take on the burdens of the world ... concern should start with the self and work outwards through concentric circles lest one become the sort of humanitarian Napoleon who destroys the world in order to save it. Much liberal universalism strikes me as being derived from immaturity and anxiety in weakly formed selves who are unable to build an independent existence outside the group-think of the ideologically like-minded.

I also seem to have been surrounded, through Brexit and recent political events, by many people who have taken what values they have out of their mental box but then constructed rigid systems from them that seem not only completely out of kilter with the facts but drives them to believe that things could be as they never can be. This is the idiotic politics of naive idealism, wide-eyed hope that almost always presages great cruelties and incompetencies. It is compounded by the hysteria of the media whose interpretative and analytical skills are barely existent in the drive to tell stories thoroughly detached from reality. Reading the FT on Brexit is watching a sort of cultural oozalum bird in full flight. Watching the BBC is like watching a rather confused old dear try to deal with the i-phone someone gave them for Christmas. Reading the Daily Mail is like being cornered by a perpectually snarling mad dog.

Over the last few years, I have decided that I don't really like people who don't have clear values (I have no problem with people whose core values are not mine) and who cover up their feelings with ideology and pretence. I have removed them quietly and without rancour from my social circle as intrinsically rather stupid and boring. Those who cover their class interest or personal interest with a coating of emotional idealism, whether it be their stake in the NGO industry or their interest in cheap labour to keep their fluffy businesses going, are perhaps the ones who most exhibit 'mauvaise faux'. Unfashionably, I still have an admiration for people who can put personal material interest second to personal values and I always prefer the ruthless materialist who knows that he is a ruthless materialist to the self-deluding clown who pretends they are not.

My own ideological positions are simple, pragmatic and contingent - for Brexit, for an intelligent democratic socialism (which, in my opinion, is only possible under conditions where sovereign democratic nation states can be abstracted from regulatory empires) and then for strong national defence directed at peace. War should be the ruthless defence of the homeland and never more. But even these are flexible positions. Brexit is a necessity for example but I see no reason why it should require a primitive and inflexible nationalism. I would go with the Corbyn-McDonnell approach if I trusted the Labour Party more, while I see no inflexible nationalism in the Johnson-Gove position. In other words, once Brexit is decided (as it has been), there is every reason to go with the flow of national consensus (which actually there is, despite the whining of Remoaners and the posturing of the Populists) and then and only then engage in struggle over whether it is to be a Brexit for Labour or a Brexit for Capital. The behaviour of Remainers is now a national embarrassment.

The same apples to democratic socialism. My heart is very much with Corbyn and McDonnell and I find myself cheering much of their speeches but then I look at the detail and sometimes blanch. The aspirations are great - they are mostly my aspirations - but then I look at my own experience in international affairs and the market and I see that the populist promises currently under offer, combined with the failed ideological liberalism of the still dominant soft Left of the Party, create reasons for serious concern. Will we see a twentieth century welfarism, shorn of warfarism, that still fails to understand the massive import of the coming technological revolution, fails to lead it and misses the boat just as Globalisation 2.0 takes hold as a mix of anarcho-capitalism, strong nation states and decaying authoritarian empires? Quite possibly.

At the moment, I see little more than platitudes reminsicent of Harold Wilson's 'white heat' and a weak sub-Marxist understanding of power. At the time of writing, I feel disinclined to renew my Party Membership in September. It would be better to become, once again, truly independent and observe with my customary detachment, employing what tiny power I have very carefully in the direction of understanding and managing Globalisation 2.0 rather than granting it to a mass party of semi-educated enthusiasts whose programme seems doomed to disappoint. Once Brexit is done, one might reconsider one's position.

However, all in all, I know what I want. I want a smooth Brexit broadly along the current Government's lines. Accordingly and logically, I want a stable Tory minority Government until that is completed precisely because the PLP and Labour activist membership cannot be trusted on the issue. This does not seem compatible with Labour Party membership for the next two years or so. And then, two or three years on, I want to see a strong and stable, radicalised and intelligent Labour Party come to power with a working majority of 50 or so to implement a programme of democratic socialism better than the one we saw in the catch-all 'package of measures' Manifesto of a few weeks ago. Brexit first, a credible democratic socialism second, Globalisation 2.0 third. 


Tuesday 24 January 2017

Alternative Universes in American Politics?

The so-called mainstream media, obsessing about its own concerns with 'what is truth?', seems to have given up on the job of reporting what is actually happening in Washington as the Trump administration gets into gear. One of the best short accounts comes from the personal economics blog of John Maudlin and I refer you to that posting as a starting point. Here I want to look at the 'what is truth?' debate with as little rancour as possible towards a global media system that is part infotainment and half partisan advocate for its own fixed positions.

Looking at events from the United Kingdom, you get a distilled view of the situation in which the BBC offers snippets from American politicians - the classic 'sound bite' - and interviews with people who happen to be in town promoting a book or passing through. It is not a true picture of events. These can only be properly understood by someone in Washington with some access to Administration officials. Nevertheless, if I cannot comment as Maudlin comments, I can see how things are going pear-shaped on the cultural level. I listened to what Sean Spicer and Kellyanne Conway said about 'inauguration numbers' in their sound bites and then to Thomas Friedman promoting his book on BBC Radio 4 yesterday and came to some conclusions.

First, the Trump camp are surprisingly inarticulate under close questioning, seem appallingly ill-prepared (the incorrect facts that tumble out are gifts to their opponents who give no quarter) but not necessarily entirely wrong. Before he started throwing out ill-researched claims, Spicer was clearly referring to the global internet and broadcast viewing figures of the Inauguration rather than the numbers who actually turned out on the day in Washington. Partisan commentators refused to recognise that claim and decided to concentrate not on all the facts that might apply (that is, that global interest in the Trump Inauguration was probably unprecedented) but one set of fact - the lesser numbers on the ground at the Inauguration - in part because Spicer allowed himself to be moved on to that territory himself. The commentators were not actually interested in the interpretative wider truth which is that, while Trump had less people on the ground than Obama, there were fair reasons for that fact (which was a demonstrable fact) and internet and global media interest was probably higher than in any previous election. Commentators were only interested in weaponised facts where they had the advantage and in demonstrating that truth was to be defined only on their terms.

Something similar is going on in the UK with May's blunder over not revealing a failed missile test to Parliament before a vote on the extension of the nuclear deterrent. It was a fact that was inconvenient that she should have presented factually and then argued her case as to why this fact was not relevant to the decision before the House. Her opponents are now able to avoid a discussion on that decision and simply concentrate on a partisan piece of 'amour propre' because of her blunder and her continuing inability to admit the facts for entirely spurious 'national security reasons'. She dug a hole and keeps on digging as we write but that does not stop her opponents being self-serving partisans. Neither is actually interested in the truth and so it is with the American case.

When you consider that Washington is a City that lives off Government, that it has a large poor black community (possibly disproportionate to all other cities) and that Trump's support was largely based outside the East Coast and in States where significant cost and effort would be required to travel to Washington in the working week - especially for lower middle class and working class supporters - then it is reasonable that the numbers on the ground should be significantly different between the Obama and Trump administrations. Spicer was right that the media and elements in the administration were trying to use the 'fact' to delegitimise the President even if, like Prime Minister May, he blundered badly in his handling of the situation.

Spicer seemed unable to make his points clearly and articulately to the point where one really does have to ask whether he is the right person for the job and that is what is interesting, not so much which facts are true and which are not. Conway's contribution on TV was much the same - when she said 'alternative facts', she should have said (according to the articulacy standards of the mainstream media) 'alternative interpretation of the facts' (see above) or that there were facts (see above related to global reach) that the mainstream media wilfully ignored in order to offer an interpretation that suited its narrative (which would be true).

This is part of the frustration of the Trumpers. They are both wrong and not wrong. Things are more complicated than the attack dogs of the mainstream media allow. The mainstream media's methodology is to select facts but then fail to add further facts that would indicate complexity and suggest alternate interpretations. This creates a partisan and self-serving editorial narrative that is designed to de-legitimise what has now become an enemy, an enemy that they largely created for themselves in the second half of 2016. By systematically concentrating on specific 'facts', ignoring other facts and then expressing a partisan and manufactured outrage when inarticulate responses seem to question the facts they have decided to make significant, the mainstream media is often playing a sly game that is deeply embedded in their way of doing business.

The Trumpers, meanwhile, are contesting the media interpretation and the lack of fair presentation of all facts as well as the obvious purpose behind the selection of facts. This is ground that cannot be conceded by the media in case it raises questions about their right to act as intermediaries between power and the people. This methodology on the part of the media is not specific to the Trump case: it is how the media works normally. Politicians before the populists arrived always understood this. They adapted with their own techniques in return and both parties (politician and journalist), in playing a confrontational game with rules accepted by both, created the widespread distrust that both professions suffer from today. Both sides fought over interpretation according to rules set by the media but where the media did not always inquire too deeply into the facts that underpinned the politicians' position. The partial politicisation of the executive has brought civil servants into the frame of distrust as well - the Rogers case in London earlier this month demonstrated this. In effect, the public was 'informed' with half truths in a contest of competing 'weasels' and its model of the world shaped by what 'weaseldom' decided was the shape of the world. Now that game is over.

A journalist guest commentator on British TV was (unusually) corrected by the BBC presenter last night when he referred to Trump as a 'monster', No one rational who disagreed with Trump has any justification for calling him a monster and yet the Twitter feeds of journalists and academics and the comment columns are filled with similar aggressive claims without real substance other than personal prejudice or arederived from particular ideological judgments that should have nothing to do with straight news gathering. One can disagree with a man without having to call him a monster and agree with him without deludedly expecting him to be a saint.

What we have here is the arrival of inarticulate populists in high office trained on 'heuristic' thinking where everything is connected. This is at its worst when poor connections are made so that conspiracy theory results but it is at its best in giving a more realistic picture of the complexity of the world to a person than he or she can get from theory of book-larnin'. They are facing off 'rational' intellectuals, all operating within a framework of pre-set rules that have the double effect of containing them within a social structure and allowing them privileged status within that structure. The intellectuals are actually highly selective and partisan in their fact collection procedures because they see the world in terms of competition between ideas and persons. They competed in order to get a position within the game and so they see those outside the game offensively as risks to their hegemony. Part of their mythos is that a 'fact is a fact' rather than a fact in relation to other facts. Friedman unintentionally grasped the problem this morning when he said that this was a matter of an 'alternative universe'.

Friedman certainly intended the notion of Trump's people being in an 'alternate universe' as an insult at their expense but the accusation could be turned on its head. We have two alternative universes neither of which is entirely real. One is based on complexity and life actually lived in which two incompatible thoughts are possible before breakfast because that is how the world actually works and where leadership is making judgments that parse dialectical tensions. It also happens to be anxious, occasionally paranoid and certainly defensive. It sees itself as protecting itself from the world.

The other universe is based on absolute and simple notions of fact and non-fact that fail to understand how facts are selected for interpretation, how inconvenient facts are omitted to effect change and how facts can offer us multiple interpretations. Facts are accumulated within unspoken paradigms where inconvenient facts can be sidelined until their insistent knocking at the door of reality forces them back into the game - by which time 'rationalisation' has found a way to incorporate them into the model without affecting the essential structure of reality - or rather what passes for real amongst those with the power to define reality. It is also a universe based on the 'logos', the connectedness of words rather the connectedness of experiences and things. It takes emotion or sentiment and rationalises these into strings of words that may be perfectly coherent but may well be a map that is not accurate to the territory. It sees itself as being co-terminous with the world.

This clash of universes is profound because it is a clash between the ways that minds work as profound as the difference between the ways men and women think. It is not a case of one being right or one being wrong but simply one of of difference. Men and women can get along just fine in the good society through norms that respect difference but, here too, recent political conditions have created conflict through confrontation and identity politics (also associated with 'logos'-type thinking). In the good society the 'heuristic' and intellectual approaches can also get along through the medium of the effective politician but Trump has arisen (as have other national populists) precisely because the intellectual has not only despised the heuristic but has demonstrated publicly that they despised the heuristic.

The national populists have thus not caused 'reaction', they have arisen as a reaction to the long term effects of having society run from a position of aggressive intellectualism. Why is this? The massive increase in the graduate class, in regulatory capitalism and in the scale and reach of government has created a mass base for the intellectual stance which never existed before. Until this period in history, intellectuals were either servitors of power or manipulators of the levers of power. They are now power itself - or thought they were until 2016. The loss of leverage (literally) has de-intellectualised the intellectuals and turned many of them into ravening wolves seeking the blood of those who unexpectedly removed them from hegemonic power whether democratically (UK) or merely constitutionally (US). The loss of control of democracy and of constitutional forms is part of the agony of this class.

Until the post-internet era, the 'logos' political system could command and control through relying on limited information and communications systems in society. The agents of information were of the same broad social origin. The adaptability of politicians in finding the right rhetoric could defuse the bomb of populist resentment. FDR and Reagan are perhaps the models of how the American political system found the right person at the right time to defuse political discontent by conceding just what was required to salvage the system. The arrival of the internet at the same time as the unresolved economic issues arising out of 2008 combined with the inability of the liberal side of the equation to 'get' what Bernie Sanders was perhaps trying to tell them - that the old politics was creating its own opposition, its own nemesis, through hubris. We should note here that Trump has been careful to invite labor union leaders to his first meeting on manufacturing today and that many trades unionists were not happy with the liberal espousal of NAFTA which Trump has vowed to renegotiate. A million marching women may find that the heuristics of increasing job security are as or more important than their cultural politics.

The heuristic approach does not rely on interconnected and carefully calibrated coalitional politics and the dumping of single issues into packages of measures demanding loyalty but tends to see life as a process of constant negotiation and even struggle. It also places much emphasis on promise keeping whereas the logocratic approach is not interested in promises but only in shared values and the law. Judicial activism is the final position of the logocrat just as the 'movement' is the final fall-back position of the heurist. Trump symbolically epitomised that sense of life as a set of deals just as Hillary Clinton symbolically epitomised the other form of thinking which has become culturally dominant - order being imposed through fiat by regulation based on theory. Her slight popular victory reflected that cultural dominance (ironically, the conservative desire for the maintenance of order) but Trump won the formal victory which was based on the carefully balanced prejudice for a form of heuristics implicit in the original but now perhaps partly dysfunctional Constitution.

Where does this lead us? Possibly to disaster? The absolute incompatibility of slave owner values and non-slaveowner values by 1860 did not lead to a civilised separation and a different form of struggle for freedom from slavery in the South but into a vicious war. Its lack of resolution gave us the current race problem that is America's most serious continuing internal crisis of social cohesion on which a lid is kept simply because black Americans are not a majority, are concentrated geographically and America has the rule of law to fall back on. The incompatibility of populist heuristics (shared in fact by many libertarian and advanced thinkers on the East Coast as well) with ideological rationalism built on the 'logos' is now absolute - as incompatible as the differences of opinion between states in 1860.

There is now no effective dialogue between the two universes. One represents vast and well paid special interests embedded in the State and the Academy as well as the Media. It certainly means well and has noble values but it did not deliver what it promised to many people while its own elite members got richer. It is important to note that the black American vote did not surge for Hillary and that this was not because she was not black. As many have pointed out, inequality between whites and blacks certainly did not improve and probably worsened under Obama, a mixed race wealthy (by their standards) lawyer.

The other universe of Trumpers, however, seems unable to develop a language for articulating its own complexity just as the first is blind to the limits of rationalism and the extremely weak philosophical base for its Kantian 'pragmatism'. There are palaeo-conservatives, libertarians, identitarians, Judaeo-Christian communitarians and all sorts of essentialist dreamer floating around the nether regions of the Trump movement but it really is a case of a 'thousand flowers blooming' with no clear core. This may be a good thing for a heuristic way of dealing with reality but it also means that we cannot expect coherence any time soon. The mainstream media (outside Fox and RT and sections of the British right-wing media) is wholly trapped within one universe and the centres of power in Washington, increasingly in London and possibly elsewhere later this year, are now either in or being drawn into the other universe by necessity.

The problem gets more difficult for the intelligent citizen who understands that the heuristic approach to the world is intellectually correct (though it need not come up with the analyses of Trump by any means) but that both universes are spinning towards a clash that will not result in war yet might well result in a collapse in internal cohesion, political violence and attempts to change the Constitution ... perhaps worse. At best, it may mean a cultural war in which one or other has to win or die, leaving the loser in a state of simmering resentment like the Confederacy after 1866.

This is an international problem not confined to the US by any means. Our putative intelligent citizen has a difficult choice whether to assist the heuristic universe to articulate its position more effectively (that is, to adopt the technology of the 'logos' without its ideology or special interest aspects) and so bring it to some sort of compromise with the rational - but will it or cannot listen? Alternatively, he or she could try to introduce a more informed heuristic understanding to the other universe, the one which has become self-serving in its use of the 'logos' to drive ideology. The inhabitants of the latter universe have already weaponised language and the Trump camp are right to see this weaponisation, making use of the mainstream media, as a threat for which they have developed little protection. Perhaps they feel like an insurgent liberation army facing a ramshackle but well armed state military that won't admit defeat after losing control of its capital and is now inclined to warlordism.

The protection that the Trump camp may employ (since human beings are adept at survival) is likely to be asymmetric and culturally subversive. The lack of respect for the new Presidency may become something that the 'educated' but not necessarily always 'intelligent' preceding elite may come to regret since the one thing that the incomers have which they do not command is the internet under the conditions of the First Amendment. The battle for control of the social media platforms comes next. Already, the German logocrats are trying to intervene to manage and control Facebook and other media in anticipation of their own trial of strength in the Autumn. The most probable outcome of all this, much further down the line, is a dialectical one in which both sides exhaust themselves into something new, perhaps a younger generation adopting heuristics as a way of life but directed towards more liberal ends and less intolerant of difference. Perhaps that is just wishful thinking. Perhaps history will look on 2017-2018 as America's bloodless (we hope) Cultural Civil War because that is what it is shaping up to be.

Saturday 3 December 2016

Narrating The Current Crisis - What Trump May Mean

The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States is a fact on the ground. Even if Jill Stein somehow succeeded in overturning the result through recounts, it is to be doubted that the populist movement would accept the revision. A Hillary Clinton Presidency would be a wounded beast, facing an angry Republican Congress and probable civil strife and under vicious and continuous internet attack. The world beyond the United States, having congratulated Trump once, will be embarrassed to have to become partisan by subsequently congratulating Clinton. The deeper truth is that Trump has won even if he loses a recount. He has destabilised liberal America and mobilised populist America. That clock cannot be turned back. Nor is Trump's victory is an isolated event. A number of similar political events across the West suggest that a radical change affecting international relations is under way and that the process has not yet concluded. Let us provide a new narrative of contemporary history and see where it leads us.

We can start by saying that the neo-liberal model and its ameliorative liberal internationalist and post-Cold War international socialist variants have improved conditions for many millions outside the West but they have arguably also enriched up to half of domestic Western populations at the expense of the condition, security and identity of the other half as well as created oligarchical minorities elsewhere. Neo-liberalism and its variants have also not brought peace. On the contrary, a forward expansion of liberal values by force has destabilised many countries, leading to mass movement of peoples (which brings free movement of peoples into disrepute amongst those who have not benefited from globalisation), has created new security threats, has forced non-Western sovereign states into defensive militaristic postures and has even recreated the conditions for superpower competition and confrontation only a quarter of a century after the ending of the Cold War.

There have been benefits from quasi-socialist and liberal ameliorative strategies operating at a global level, especially in terms of the mobilisation of progressive forces outside the West and the engagement of young activists in progressive politics within it but regulatory regimes have tended to pay only lip service to democracy and to have preferred corporatist structures in which activist minorities collaborate with corporate CSR departments and government agencies to impose legal and regulatory solutions to global problems without consultation with or the political education of those in the West left behind. They also tend to treat emerging country populations as ‘subjects’ of action rather than as independent actors engaged in their own liberatory struggle.

The role of the United States has been ambiguous. The promotion of a progressive liberal agenda has often operated alongside a militaristic and expansionist agenda. This has created a class of international NGO activists ‘who mean well’ but it has also created alliances with faith-based obscurantists who feign democracy and, in turn, also created its own obscurantist and reactionary oppositionism prepared to engage in armed struggle to defend identity against what they see as cultural imperialism. National liberation has moved from the progressive Left to the reactionary Right, the United Nations has been diminished and, at its worst, the reaction to Western ideological expansionism has created cause for new threats of asymmetric warfare operated by terrorists allied with organised crime.

Globalisation, in collapsing borders, has also permitted massive capital accumulation by organised crime, free riding the increase in international trade, in facilitating illegal economic migration (often willing but sometimes enslaved), piracy, online fraud and the trade in narcotics and banned substances as well as in armaments and illicit untaxed funds. The liberal internationalist regulatory strategy has scarcely made a dent in this expansion of non-state activity which may be classed as criminal by state moralists but, in some areas, represents the developing world’s own rational exploitation of globalisation.

The negative response to this situation was originally restricted to two distinct movements. The first was the rise of a domestic Western anti-war movement which split progressive forces into those who supported liberal values expansion and those who saw it as imperialistic. The second saw the co-emergence of neo-nationalist resistance to the claims of the West. Both appeared in the wake of Western intervention in Central Asia and the Middle East. During this period, the Liberal Establishment of the West was in a strong enough position to ignore the anti-war movements and to place continued pressure on non-Western nations, not excluding attempts at regime change by stealth, often indirect through 'Foundations'. The prospect of a global hegemony for the West, based on market economics, oligarchical democracy and rights ideology, was considered real by the liberal’ hawks’. At this time, right wing national populist forces in the West were largely marginal.

In 2008, a major economic crisis transformed the situation. The capitalist system teetered briefly on the edge but proved resilient. However, its resilience was purchased at the price of a strategy of domestic austerity which continues to this day. This coincided with growing acceptance that liberal interventionism using force had been a disaster that had not achieved its ends although the full fruits of that disaster would still not be seen for some time (exemplified by the Syrian tragedy). Confidence in the elite was shaken but the solution of the voters was, at this stage, to grumble but change the captains of the fleet, not the direction of the navy.

The Coalition Government of 2010 in the UK and the Obama Administration which came to office as the recession of 2008’s effects were unfolding continued governance much as before but a series of developments shook confidence in the elite: above all, the economic crisis itself and the associated fact that, though economies were stabilised, growth did not return. The self-identifying middle classes (actually the middling and lower middle classes and upper working class) were disproportionately hit by the consequences. The rich appeared to get richer. Austerity measures were increasingly judged to be applied unfairly to keep elected officials in power by appealing to the half of the population fearful of taxation. Elected officials were increasingly seen as self-interested and even corrupt or certainly beholden to the economic interests who had caused the crash. In foreign affairs, incapable of winning wars, democratic states proved perfectly capable of war crimes and out of touch with public distaste for foreign adventurism. Since progressive governments had either presided over the conditions that led to the crash or were presiding over the failure to deal with the consequence of the crash, public discontent tended to move to the right rather than the left (although populist movements appeared of both types). This was compounded by a new factor - the pressure of mass migration as 'free movement of peoples' turned from a dream into a nightmare that liberal ideologues failed to recognise as such.

The failure of the Arab Spring and other democracy movements saw a hardening of state power across the emerging world and in the communist and former communist states. These latter states also took a more neo-nationalist stance, fully aware of the role of Western elites in attempted regime destabilisation. Noting Russia’s successful incursion into Georgia, they began the process of resisting liberal Western incursion and then turning back the tide of Western expansion, a process in which Russia took the lead with its acquisition of Crimea and its own intervention in defence of the existing order in Syria. If the liberal internationalists continued to pursue their strategy either directly or indirectly through ‘philanthropic’ foundations, these not only made little headway but created further instabilities which neo-nationalists could exploit. A huge class, an 'industry', of otherwise unemployable graduates created a special interest bloc in the West of 'activists' and 'campaigners', appealing to that part of the electorate with a deontological view of international affairs where the exclamation of a 'should' would be sufficient to demand an action that would then become an 'is' - life is rarely so simple! This was faith-based and not evidence-based politics. While the Left began to split into its liberal left and socialist components with increasingly bitter recriminations between the two over austerity, identity politics, liberal economics and foreign policy, the real beneficiary of this break down in the liberal Western paradigm was the neo-nationalist and populist Right which now began to grow rapidly within the West.

The negative populist reaction to liberal elite failure was both a Left and a Right phenomenon but it was the Right that was enabled to remain united in its opposition. Most of the establishment Left were implicated in the failures and errors of the current regime. This has been symbolised well in the last week by the unprecedented decision of an incumbent French Socialist President of France not to put himself forward as the candidate of his Party in next year's Presidential Election. Liberal elements on the Left had refused to compromise with public anger because of liberal ideology and so saw their side split into factions and their acceptability diminish except among special interest groups who had nowhere else to go (such as public sector white collar employees and NGO workers). Meanwhile the populist Right, taking overt inspiration from the effective opposition to liberal hegemony of Putin (Russia), created an alliance of the lower middle class with national trading and financial interests and discontented working class people whose economic interests had been ignored and whose culture had been disrespected by urban liberals. These latter created a network of interconnected national populist movements that claimed democracy and freedom (not without reason in some cases), seizing power quite quickly in Hungary and Poland but increasingly setting the terms of debate elsewhere and posing material threats to the established order in countries as different as the UK, France and Italy.

The first major breakthrough for populism against the elite was not on the Right but on the Left with the surprise election of a marginal figure (Jeremy Corbyn) to the Leadership of the Labour Party, Instead of accepting the result, the liberal wing of the party undertook a war of attrition against their new Leader. This halted any chance of Labour becoming the voice for British populism instead of UKIP. By the time he was established firmly as Leader (even then clearly being undermined despite that), the initiative had long since passed to UKIP and thence to the Leave Campaign for Brexit. This same opportunity was lost more recently in the US when the DNC conspired to halt the rise to power of the avowed socialist Bernie Sanders, confident that their preferred candidate, Hillary Clinton would have the confidence of the American people. This split on the Left and widespread economic discontent presents us with weak versions of Lenin’s famous three pre-conditions for revolution. All that were missing were the cadres to seize power. These were provided by ruthless well-funded populist machines, wholly dedicated to achieving power, in successively the Brexit Vote and the 2016 Presidential Election and strong enough to push aside even the mainstream media which had been arbiter of politics for the bulk of post-industrial history.

The victory of these forces is truly revolutionary for the following reasons:-
  1. They have forced conservative forces to accommodate the key populist demands of the neo-nationalists – we see this in the strategic commitment of the May Government to Brexit and the degree to which previously negative conservative Republicans have offered their full support to the incoming President
  2. They have given encouragement strategically and tactically to national populists elsewhere, most notably in Europe where there are real fears amongst liberals that their last major stronghold (the European Union) may fall to neo-nationalism or implode under pressure from neo-nationalism
  3. They have not merely out-manoeuvred the progressive Left but have forced it into a crisis with the two factions (the socialists and the liberal) now engaged in a bitter existential struggle for dominance as the primary opposition force – a process that may take many months or even years to result in victory for one side. It is just as likely that these forces will split into separate ‘parties’, dividing the Left for a generation.
  4. Moreover, they have managed to ‘detourne’ the liberal left so that it appears to be increasingly anti-democratic and irrational as well as arrogant and narcissistic, the historical attributes of the Right. This latter may be the populists’ greatest achievement in the long run.
  5. They have introduced other apparently left-wing strategic policies – including variants of Keynesianism and anti-imperialism/peace – into populist discourse leaving the liberal (rather than the democratic socialist) Left as justificatory spokespeople for austerity, corporatism and even war (which in itself fuels the civil war within the Left).
  6. They have adopted a paradoxical inter-nationalism in which strong nation states collaborate as they compete, concentrating on trade relations and deal-making rather than war – again, this is a ’detournement’ of traditional Left positions which have abandoned inter-nationalism and national liberation for supra-nationalism and trans-nationalism.
  7. Above all, they have appealed over the heads of the Left beyond their traditional lower middle class base to the non-public sector working class (at least in the Anglo-Saxon countries), adopting their values, respecting their culture and (at least superficially) supporting their economic interests. This has split the working class from the Left in a decisive historical shift that saw a third of working class votes go for Brexit despite Labour backing for Remain and the Democrat’s white working class support dramatically hollowing out on November 8th.
The importance of the Trump phenomenon is that whoever commands the United States of America commands the general thrust of international relations policy. It is now clear that a national populist agenda is in charge of that thrust, directly or indirectly (in the event of a disputed result) for at least four and probably eight years and maybe twelve years That is sufficient time (as Reagan showed) to transform the condition of the world for good or ill. It is likely that a more moderate but allied Conservative Government will be in office in the UK for at least four years and possibly nearly a decade and that the European Union will see a major transfer of power to the national populist right in several major nations and possibly the implosion of the liberal model for the Union as a whole.

This is as strategically important as the arrival of communism and fascism in the 1920s. Even if states were not communist or fascist by the 1930s, they often adapted their politics not merely to challenge these forces but to appropriate aspects of them in order better to challenge them. National populism in a number of variants, including liberal and Left variants, are likely to become the hegemonic form of international relations discourse for at least the next decade and probably much longer This does not mean the Left does not represent a challenge to the new Right. Neither of national populism’s great victories (the US Election and Brexit) were overwhelming – the Democrats still (barely) won a majority of the popular vote and we have noted the theoretical possibility of the result being overturned by recounts. Similarly, Brexit is accepted by both major parties but the debate over whether the UK is to have a 'soft' or 'hard' Brexit permits Remainers to believe they can overturn the mandate through stealth or attrition. But the Left now has a major problem of credibility – it is associated with arrogance, incompetence, corruption and hypocrisy and, increasingly, with a rather dubious attitude to democracy.

Another problem the Left has is one of division – there are now two major competing visions for defeating neo-nationalism, the liberal and the socialist, which are fundamentally incompatible. The former will not adapt, compromise and let go of power while the latter sees the former as equally if not more problematic than the populists (who inconveniently will not go all the way to being fascists or official racists or xenophobes despite intense attempts by liberal propagandists to make these connections). Moreover, many socialists have more in common with Trump on key aspects of foreign and economic policy than they do with their own liberal ‘allies’ while many liberals are clearly highly emotional about single and identity issues that socialists see as part of the problem and not part of the solution. Given that Jill Stein only got 1% of the vote and 40% of women voted for Trump, the environmentalist and feminist commitments that lead Left thinking are also probable barriers to recapturing working class support.

To all intents and purposes, November 8th was a devastating blow to the liberal internationalist project. Funding will continue from European (at least until 2018) and from Liberal Foundation sources but US and UK Government sources are likely to dry up quite rapidly in the coming months. More to the point, the US and UK Governments are no longer going to be available to promote many liberal causes with emerging world Governments even if the British Government appears to remain committed to some important international rights-related treaties. UK Government action will be redirected at trade deals forcing European countries to follow suit. Major international agencies will have their role questioned with expectations that policy be in accordance with national populist values. The Business & Human Rights Treaty is unlikely to make progress until the current cycle is over - unless it is made more business-friendly.  The balance of power has shifted.

Corporate reactions fall into various special interest categories with many welcoming the new populism, others (with large urban liberal customer bases) nervous of boycotts and politicisation and others concerned about the collapse of the existing liberal internationalist order. One likely result is that all but the bravest corporation will start to withdraw funding from social liberal projects that might be classed as political where once they were simply classed as CSR (corporate social responsibility). Public affairs departments are reeling under the shock because they tend to be staffed by ‘urban liberals and liberal conservatives’, people who have had a stake in the preceding order and a career path that might include political office. Now, they have to consider their options as business splits into camps according to their relationship to various factions in the culture wars. However we look at it, independent funding is likely to decrease or shift into obviously charitable projects where those charities are not engaged in political lobbying. Radical capitalists like Soros and Branson are swimming against the tide. They are also not getting any younger.

Culturally, the liberal internationalists are faced with the problem that they are no longer ‘hegemonic’ within the West. Half the population rejects their hegemony. A significant part of the leadership of the 'hegemonic half' is questioning the strategy of arrogance towards the working and lower middle classes. Globalisation is in question intellectually. Liberal internationalists no longer hold all the commanding heights of power (and may not recover ground until 2020 or even 2024 or 2028) and, if they do recapture them, it will be a much weakened position - Weimar or Leon Blum's Popular Front to all intents and purposes. Their funding is about to fall except from highly politicised Foundations who are now in a confrontational relationship with the sources of power that can deliver what liberal NGOs want. Soros, for example, has openly declared war on the Trump Administration which places the Trump Administration alongside every 'regime' that Soros wants to overturn - their enemies' enemy is Trump. Every attempt to assert radical liberal values now has a countervailing, often cogent and aggressively positioned, alt-right argument. As liberal social media platforms try to cut out the alt-right, new platforms appear to serve it.

Two cultural opponents within the West are now evenly matched for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union and this has happened in under a year. As in all such struggles in the past, it will be hard for anyone to stay out of the fight and stay in public life. The old Right/Left conflict is changing into a conflict between democratic nationalism and inter-nationalism on the one side and supra-nationalism and liberal internationalism on the other. A third of the Left, mostly working class, will find itself moving into what will be positioned as the New Right and a third of the Right, mostly managerial business and white collar professionals, will find themselves moving into the Liberal Left. The former have the old media, the universities, the 'intellectuals' and the scribblers. The latter may have the most innovative parts of the new media, the public meetings, the bulk of social media sharers and the people who discuss public affairs in the pubs rather tham the wine bars. And we are only at the beginning ...

Wednesday 22 June 2016

Final Thoughts on the Brexit Vote Tomorrow

The vote is now impossible to predict. For example, it is going to be extremely wet tomorrow and that will put off a lot of wobblers on both sides, Similarly, many perfectly decent but unsophisticated middle middle class people see a world of disorder and will conservatively vote for what they think will maintain order (Remain): such a desire for order amidst disorder led to the interwar errors.

On the other side, many working class people and entrepreneurial small business people may see this in cultural terms as the last stand of their culture not against immigrants but against the administrative middle classes and so be the more motivated to vote.

We could go on ... I doubt whether the rather depressing and slightly unpleasant appropriation of a dead person for political purposes will make much difference, irritating as many voters as it mobilises. The economic arguments have long since reached the limit of their power.

It is now down to instinct and sentiment and brute self-interest albeit with the so-called 'educated' middle class desperately trying to use a selection of pseudo-rational arguments to explain their choice to themselves.

If we were to characterise the underlying structure of the conflict, it would be that, although highly complex with many different strands, it is essentially the conflict between a conservative desire for an order to be supplied by an ostensibly liberal-minded administrative class in uncertain times (Remain) and a more radical instinct for change because the existing structures are no longer viable even if those who want change have different prescriptions about what to do next (Leave).

The Remainers constantly call for a 'plan' about 'what to do next' utterly missing the point that the various administrative classes of late liberal capitalist democracy have themselves failed to bring order under conditions of globalisation. Their plan is just 'more of the same' only more intensively applied.

This leaves the population with only two alternatives which the two sides now represent. The first choice is for an intensification of effort by the administrative classes to regulate disorder out of existence along a middling path (the 'plan') despite the constantly growing cracks in the paradigm.

The second choice is to step back and construct geographical and policy fire breaks against the gathering storm to protect the population and bring the administrative classes under control, either through markets or democracy or both. Either choice is broadly coherent but coherence is not necessarily the same as rational since national socialism had its coherence.

The question is whether the administrative classes have the authority and competence to manage vast numbers of humanity each with their own special interests and world views and whether the 'fire break' method can actually work against the sheer weight of forces emerging as a result of an over-rapid globalisation.

I take a Leave position because my analysis is that the administrative classes are faced with such an impossible task that they can only turn to increased surveillance, taxation (to support themselves) and even repression.

The 'fire break' approach gives nation states' and indeed communities at a lower level in the political food chain reserve powers to make decisions in their own interest, analogous to the personal autonomy necessary to make effective private and family decisions. It is really the last chance saloon, not only for stability but for the successful adaptation of populations to a more managed globalisation over a longer period of time.

The point, if one is concerned with stability, is that the system is paradoxically being destabilised by its own attempt to create a stable system. A new and more flexible and adaptable approach to the system is required. The stresses and strains within the current system are 'tectonic'. If they are not released gently, like economic crises, they will release themselves in a bigger explosion later.

What many Remainers are (I believe) not understanding is that the British Leave proposal is actually rather conservative. It detaches Britain from the system sufficiently to ensure adjustment but actually retains nearly all the existing links - unless the European Union itself seeks a confrontation (which is unlikely). It also permits re-engagement later on European reform by Europeans for Europeans.

Re-immersion in the European Union appears to solve the problem in one country but it has no effect (other than to delay the day of reckoning) on the total system, not even to improve its position. The total system continues its administrative-led trajectory towards increased disorder, made worse by the patching up being done to try to ensure the British do not leave.

So, a vote either way is problematic but a vote for Remain ironically increases the very disorder that its proponents most fear. The act of voting Remain merely pushes a 'crisis of order' forward by a few years (perhaps even months). The fundamentals say that the immersion of the nation must eventually be much deeper in an integrated European Union than many Remain voters actually want.

Perhaps Remainers will come to want an enhanced administrative authority over them as crises mount and economic prosperity fails to materialise but, if they do, then democracy will be little more than handing over power to the political wing of the administrative and managerial classes.

And when the immersion has finally taken place in full, they, as citizens, will either be part of the administrative and managerial class or subject to its desperate attempts to manage mounting entropy. Being a subject of the European administrative class is really not much better than being a subject of the pre-modern Crown.

Saturday 28 May 2016

Livingstone, Zionism and the Nazis

The National Socialist regime of the 1930s has always fascinated me, ever since, around the age of 12, I came across an article on medical experimentation in the concentration camps and was almost physically sick. Since then, I have accumulated a large library of books from every perspective. The story has nagged at me because the conventional narratives never seemed quite right.

First, there was the historical-epistemological problem that the victors of any struggle always write the narrative. It takes time for a detached and independent analysis of the facts to emerge just as the facts themselves ossify into highly selective documentation with the deaths of the participants.

Second, the truly horrific fate of the Jews and the barbarism and totalitarianism of a rough-hewn populist movement was always presented as a sort of grim morality tale around a demonic figure (Hitler), as a folk tale of inevitability where virtue was finally rewarded after many trials and tribulations.

What such a narrative failed to do was deal with the inconvenient facts that the participants were working in real time with limited knowledge, that all parties involved were human beings and neither angels nor demons and that few could see how acts in one place at one time could possibly result in effects in another place and at another time. There was, I suspected, more chaos in the history than hindsight reconstruction had permitted.

Third, I felt uncomfortable at the way post-war commentators insisted on speaking for the victims of circumstance and criminality. The story was equally skewed by the enforced silence, guilt and shame of the losing side (partly out of fear of vengeance or legal penalty).

This, as well as the competition between various parties that subsequently ensued over their victim status, struck me as precisely the wrong method of getting at the truth of the matter - certainly of precisely why and how things had happened.

It has been pointed out [by Cesarani - see below] that amongst the Jewish victims of the Nazis, the survivors were disproportionately young and mobile and that this has given us a narrative that takes little account of the perspective of those settled, older and with families.

In contemporary events, we see similar issues arise. Narratives are written by those with the resources to gather information and manage the media. These narratives are then imposed on us and we are given limited access to alternative stories. Very few active participants in the drama ever get to tell their story directly.

Victims are often mediated through NGOs with an eye to policy change and fund-raising. Perpetrators are wholly demonised and unable to explain what process led to their emotions and actions. Sides are taken, attitudes are not adjusted to reality and actions are consequently undertaken that worsen the situation.

A politics of outrage can emerge without the resources or will being to hand that will achieve any major change to a situation until it has reached cataclysmic proportions and become an existential clash of grand narratives with only one possible winner amidst the expenditure of much blood and gold.

The current migration crisis is like a re-run of the 'Jewish problem' of the 1930s with the same lack of analysis, the same populist hysteria, the same desperation, the same impossibility of a liberal solution and the same threat of it turning cataclysmic because no one is listening to anyone else or questioning the ideological assertions of those with access to the media.

Mountains of print and documentary footage seem to skirt profound questions of what our species is like when faced with humiliation and poverty perhaps because the conclusions were often too shocking for most liberal minds to contemplate. Observing our species in its raw rather than cooked state is left to the servants. It is evaded as we evade our own deaths.

There have been honourable exceptions. Laurence Reese's Their Darkest Hour (2007) managed to escape the good versus evil trap to show how evil was to be found in the chaos of all sides of the Second World War. You certainly need a strong stomach to read his text to the end.

Similarly, the idea that actors involved in the drama were in full control of events always struck me as absurd, a point brought out in the diplomatic arena by Zachary Shore's What Hitler Knew (2002).

Hitler was an emotional chancer of not inconsiderable natural intelligence but, like all of us, he was not a person whose views did not change over time. Finding what precisely drove him affects every judgement we subsequently make about his regime.

Was he driven by antisemitism or by something else? Cesarani certainly makes the plausible case that, in fact, although anti-semitic, he was more driven by his nationalism and an imperialist analysis of the state of Germany.

Reese and Shore helped bring me to the conclusion that, just like a lot of corporate and administrative life today, most activity takes place in a state of muddle in which sociopaths are constrained more or less by the degree to which the muddle is regulated.

The recent child abuse scandals across the world indicate that sociopathic predation is not deterred even by the existence of any ostensible cultural regulation.

Using Cesarani to Try & Understand What Happened

Coincidentally to the Livingstone 'scandal', I recently picked up what strikes me as the most definitive and most mature account of the war on the Jews I have yet read (I have not completed the book but the issue of Livingstone and the Labour Party is urgent: my comments below take us only to 1938).

This book is the late David Cesarani's distillation of a lifetime of Holocaust studies published this year, Final Solution: The Fate of the Jews 1933-1949. On the reading so far (and I will review it when I have completed it), it is a competent and humane account of the tragedy.

Cesarani does not offer us another folk tale but rather a sound explanation of events rooted in what people actually knew of their situation and in the context of their own interpretation of that situation.

The issue in our intellectually trivial mass media was whether Livingstone was or was not an antisemite because he had made an off-the-cuff remark that was interpreted as saying that Hitler was a Zionist - much to the glee of excitable BBC reporters.

Cesarani's narrative, fact-based, is highly instructive in assessing Livingstone's claims. I use those facts here while making it clear that the interpretation is mine. And why do I allow myself to comment when I have only got to 1939 in the book? Because Livingstone was referring primarily to the early period of Nazi rule, the era of the so-called Haavara Agreement.

His comments should be judged on an understanding of what the Nazi regime was thinking in that period when it was in effective coalition with German Conservatism and not from the perspective of the exterminatory 1940s.

The fact that people change their mind over time has to be accepted and the error not made of believing what happened at point B was part of the understanding of the people at point A.

As the 'enemy within' (of which more later), the preferred strategy of the Nazis in the 1930s came to be expulsion (much as the Moriscos were expelled in Spain in the 1490s) but a series of unfortunate facts on the ground conspired to drive the regime into encouraging emigration through terror and expropriation at a time when the Jews had nowhere to go and the only ones with a plan under such circumstances were the Zionists.

As we shall see, the soup of terror, theft and murder emerged out of many ingredients -  the reluctance of ordinary Jews to be expelled, the vicious anti-semitism of the dim-witted ordinary activist in the populist movements that underpinned the regime, the perception of Hitler that the Jews were getting in the way of his war plans, the emergence of ambitious Nazi radicals in the security apparat, the inability (rather than failure) of the West to provide a refuge for the expelled or send in troops on humanitarian grounds (we have seen how that has ended up in recent history), German desperation to build up economic resources for imperial ambitions and the diplomatic problems that suddenly emerged when the radicals tried to dump the problem on the British Empire.

In this context, the Zionist strategy in Germany assisted the process of apartheid without actually enabling much migration while the Zionist strategy in America, almost certainly from ignorance rather than intent, began to 'prove' to National Socialists (and indeed Italian Fascists) that Jewry was international and was engaged in a project to limit and control the aspirations of European nation-states that had lost out on the plundering of the world by the Western Empires.

From apartheid to expropriation and expulsion, the road to extermination emerged as the final act in a drama in which an 'enemy within', constructed in part by the way that the West criticised the regime, came to look like a fifth column using up vital resources in a struggle of existential import to the Nazis.

The poor Jewish people across Europe found itself positioned as something it never was, an active trans-national plot against Germany and, without intent, Zionism accidentally helped in the construction of that meaning by its own determination to be an international actor.

The Zionists and the Nazis - The Alliance of the Incommensurable

Cesarani makes it clear that the National Socialists actively encouraged Zionist-like solutions to the 'Jewish Problem' between 1933 until the borders closed with war in 1939.

The 'alliance' of convenience between Nazis and Zionists began originally as a shared interest in diminishing the sincerely felt belief of most conservative German Jews that they had a place in Germany and were not simply (in the Nazi formulation) Jews in Germany.

By analogy we can see the difference in tone that the term 'British Muslims' has from 'Muslims in Britain'. The first is inclusive and the second positions Muslims as the 'other' and potentially, in a crisis, the 'enemy within'.

The right-wing Zionists were complicit in this, initially willingly and latterly certainly not so, although for complicated reasons. One of those reasons was they wanted assimilationist conservative Jews to feel that they had no place in Germany because they wanted these Germans, many wealthy and cultured, to emigrate to an ethnically pure Jewish homeland, preferably in Palestine.

Zionists were engaged in their own cultural, political and ideological struggle within Western Judaism. They were temporarily blinded (in Europe) by that internal struggle to the threat to Jews of being seen as 'internationalists' in an age of nationalism where, paradoxically, a Jewish version of the prevailing nationalism would be seen as an internationalist plot against specific nationalisms.

Both Zionists and National Socialists were creatures of the late nineteenth century with a similar pseudo-scientific essentialism about their own identity, an essentialism you might then have found across the so-called civilised world, in late British imperialism as much as in the Japanese Empire.

However, we can never go so far as to say that Hitler 'was a Zionist' (that claim does not stand up) but only that an identity of interest emerged in these years which fell apart only when the Nazis realised that the British were themselves considering creating a Jewish State in Palestine, one which would have given Jews a recognised diplomatic status from which to criticise the National Socialist regime.

At that point, Nazi policy remained the expulsion of the Jews by forcing them to emigrate but the Zionist model of a Palestinian homeland ceased to be of any intrinsic interest to the Nazis smewhere between 1936 and 1938.

The Nazis just wanted the Western powers or neighbouring states to take them off their hands and, to jump ahead beyond our 1938 cut-off date, the Nazis were still obsessed with strategies of expulsion rather than extermination well into their war on Poland in 1939.

The diplomatic status of the Jewish people in this context was relevant in its potential for mobilising further the most Nazi-critical force of consequence in international relations, the American Democrats who were in power under FDR and, as we shall see, Jewish activism in the US had a disturbing kick-back effect on German attitudes.

We like to date American hegemony from the middle of the Second World War when it took over from an exhausted British Empire and sealed the deal in the Suez Crisis but, in fact, American economic power, even under conditions of Depression, and its associated diplomatic influence were already central to the deliberations of weaker European powers in the 1930s.

The diplomatic status concern emerged because Jews overseas had emerged as a force to be reckoned with in defending their kindred in Germany.

We might say that we had here an emergent conflict of Zionisms - one in the West seeking to bring the West into play against Germany on behalf of German Jews in general and one in Germany seeking to collaborate with the National Socialists against the German-Jewish community that was not Zionist.

This fact alone belies the claim of a co-ordinated International Jewry. Yet Jews were speaking to each other on political matters and sufficiently so to create the perception of 'International Jewry' amongst those minded to see it.

Conservative German Jews themselves tended (until a certain point of no return) to want to quieten down Western protest precisely because of the provocative effects on German national feeling and the way it raised doubts about their own loyalty just as they initially competed with Zionists in an effort to halt the apartheid process within Germany. The Zionists and the religiously orthodox Jews had less of a problem with the 'apartheid' model.

By 1936-1937, the situation had become so critical for Jews in Germany that the representatives of German Jewry (who had had a very different vision of the future of the Jews in Europe than the Zionists) and the Zionists started to co-operate.

Nazi attitudes also changed after an abortive attempt (stopped by the British) of a small Nazi delegation to visit Palestine and meet with right-wing Zionists. The diplomatic issue (see above) had also intruded at this point and the Nazis were starting to radicalise their own emigration strategy which they saw as existential because of the coming (as Hitler saw it) inevitable war of survival.

From the Anschluss (March 1938) onwards, Zionists remaining in Austria and then in Germany were trapped into becoming little more than a tool of a strategy that might have accorded with their ends but which definitely did not accord with their vision of the means.

Zionists can certainly not be held responsible for any 'complicity' after this period, perhaps for quite some time before, for the simple reason that they had no choice in the matter. So, the situation is complicated, as complicated as, say, the decision to immolate a hundred thousand people at Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Far far more complicated than Livingstone implied but there was still more substance to his claims (taken as a brief period of history when the full extent of Nazi Party determination to impoverish German Jews and chase them out of Germany was unclear) than critics like John Mann can admit. The obviousness of the radical strategy of total expropriation emerged only with Kristallnacht (1938).

It is certainly not anti-semitic to point out uncomfortable truths about the three years of early Nazi-conservative rule in Germany but it should equally be said that the alliance of interest between right-wing Zionists (who showed, at times, proven disregard for the fate of Jews who wanted to remain Europeans) was based on the assessment which many shared at the time that Nazi policy was merely going to be a matter of 'apartheid'.

What no one, not even the Nazis, were seriously envisaging was that 'apartheid' was just the first stage of a process that would later lead to extermination both by deliberation and under the exigencies of war within a decade. Extermination emerged out of repeated alternative policy failures under conditions where the Nazis had truly boxed themselves into a corner from which there was no escape.

The Radicalisation of the Nazis

The problem was that the emigration solution proved difficult because most Jews understandably would not follow their own Zionist ideologues and give up their lives and livelihoods as German Jews easily. Most German Jews were, bluntly, not Zionists in the 1930s.

The emigration strategies of Nazis and Zionists alike were equally stymied by the politically understandable reluctance of the Western Powers to offer hundreds of thousands of Jews a new home during domestic economic crises and, in the case of Palestine, with the threat of destabilising further an unstable part of the British Empire.

German frustration was driven by the brute fact that whatever they did, there was nowhere for the Jews to go - just as the small town and rural Nazis were becoming increasingly vicious in their frustration that the Jews were not being 'emigrated' as promised.

The oil between these two wheels - Nazi populism below the level of the leadership and Western inability to offer help to the Jews (and it was a political inability since some politicians seem to have been keen to do more but were constrained by democracy itself) - was provided by one particular Nazi faction, its Jesuits in the SS, who applied moderate intellect and relative efficiency to an ignorant and chaotic ideology.

It was the SS, specifically Eichmann, who opportunistically grabbed the power being provided by populist street action to seize administrative control of the Jewish Problem and make active use of Zionist networks to try and drive the emigration strategy just as Goring and other Nazi bosses were driving the matter for entirely different reasons (war preparedness) through overt expropriation.

If 'extermination' was not a confirmed policy of the Nazis in the 1930s, expulsion was - even ghettoisation tended to be accidental rather than deliberate until after war was declared. Extermination only emerged later as an option (although radical Nazis never shied from the policy conceptually) when large numbers of Jews were trapped inside German territory as borders closed.

The economics of the situation in the mid-1930s had already implied that from being producers (the basis of early relative 'tolerance' under the influence of Schacht) the Jews (thanks, of course, to the very policies of marginalisation and expropriation) had become drains on the resource required for the future war effort.

This attached itself to a sort of existential panic amongst the Nazi elite that, combined with their absurd theories and ideology, would eventually sentence both Jews and leading Nazis to death. Cesarani brings out a number of other pressures working towards tragedy in this context.

One is the pressure on Hitler and the elite from their own radical (mostly rural and small town North German) party activists. It seems that the racist Nuremburg Laws were actually welcomed by many German Jews as giving (in theory) some protective legal basis for what was in danger of turning into a lawless pogrom.

More than once, the leadership was driven by the lawlessness of the Party, especially during the period of joint rule with conservatives.

The brown shirt elements may not have been a threat to the military after the Night of the Long Knives but they and the Gauleiters could still act as a populist rabble that claimed to speak for the ideals in Mein Kampf (even where their Fuhrer appeared to have moved on somewhat).

There is evidence of frequent attempts to try and manage the rabble from above in these early years rather than to egg them on. Racist radicalisation emerges as a force emanating from state enterprises only with Himmler's acquisition of security functions and the failure of conservative policies to achieve the nationalist and imperialist (not antisemitic) ends of Hitler.

Hitler might be characterised by the mid-1930s as an 'old man in a hurry', watching the clock tick and seeing time working against his life's work.The frustration of Hitler with the Jews as threat to his war aims and the populist instinct for the pogrom only merged with the horrors of Kristallnacht, an operation actually engineered by Goebbels much to the irritation and frustration of other Nazi barons.

With the monstrous Kristallnacht and the impetus it gave to a radical intensification of the expropriation to force emigration strategy under Goring aided by Heydrich and the Ministries, the Nazi regime entered a new and fateful phase and Zionism becomes virtually irrelevant to the story except as non-consensual creatures of the SS' emigration strategy. 

The balance of interest in 1933-1935, however, was towards an 'apartheid' (much as we rightly deplore this today) that initially permitted Jews to have their own economic and cultural identity as Jews in Germany rather than as German Jews, a status preferable (it seemed to many Jews) to being attacked by brown shirted thugs or having to abandon their assets and lifestyles for an untested future in Palestine, a French slum or Madagascar.

Bear in mind that the Western Governments tolerated, even if they disapproved morally, South African apartheid for many decades after the Second World War. And we have to say that there are some apartheid elements, 'justified' by security considerations, even today in aspects of right-wing Israeli policy directed at the Arabs.

As we shall see, the effects of Western boycotts on national economic viability while Hitler was planning his war for 'lebensraum' turned the Jews from being a cultural problem that could be solved through apartheid or expulsion ('medievalism') into an existential modern problem perceived to be decisive to any potential failure in prosecuting an eventual war effort.

The malign ideology and bad science of the Nazis conspired accidentally with the self-righteousness of external activism to reinforce the conspiracy theory and worsen the position of the Jews at a time when the struggle for Germany appeared to be becoming increasingly existential to men like Hitler.

How Right Was Livingstone?

Cesarani plausibly argues that, though Hitler was deeply antisemitic, his antisemitism was second order (in comparison to many of his followers) to his prior interest in making Germany great again through successful war-mongering.

The Jews were not the main object of his policy but were incidental to his main object - the conduct of war (although, of course, he saw the war as one not only for respect and empire but against 'International Jewry' so it would be foolish to say that the Jews were not a consideration here).

The tragedy unfolds in the 1930s in part as overseas Jewish responses confirmed the conspiracy theory and the Nazi radicals in charge of the security apparat (notably Himmler and Heydrich) were enabled by these attacks on German aspirations (as they saw them) to promote their position as agents within the Nazi State.

German Jews were squeezed between the policy priorities of the senior Nazi elite, the ideological obsessions of the Party whose radicals had captured the state security apparat and the radical activism of Zionism.

Zionism denied any solution to the problem that positioned Jews as good Germans, a positioning which German conservatives (who shared power with the Nazis until around 1936) and Catholics (who acted as a restraining influence in Bavaria and the South) could conceivably countenance.

The Zionists can definitely not be said to have not had the Jewish interest at heart (that would be absurd) but their commitment to cultural separateness found itself in a call-and-response relationship to National Socialism because their ideologies were surprisingly similar in many ways during the early 1930s.

On the evidence of Cesarani, for the period to 1936 at least and in muted form possibly beyond, there was a relationship of sorts between ideological National Socialism and ideological right-wing Central European Zionism - enemies fundamentally but both complicit in separating out the Jewish people from their European heritage and creating a unique identity, either to be contained and made self-sufficient or expelled from Europe.

If Livingstone was saying that Hitler and his advisers on Judenpolitik were Zionist, he is wrong. If he was saying that Hitler accommodated Zionism as the lesser evil, that his advisers and executives were favourable to Zionism over and against other forms of Jewish political expression and that Nazis and Zionists willingly collaborated for a period to resolve the 'Jewish problem' through exclusion and expulsion/migration, then he appears to be right.

But he is right only for this very early stage of National Socialist rule (1933-1936) when Conservatives and Zionists both retained some power and when economic considerations restricted the ability of the regime to damage Jewish domestic economic power or alienate the US in particular.

As we will see, it was the US which alienated Germany as much as Germany alienated the US - their world views were incommensurate. The Jewish situation worsened when their asset value as restraint on the West (especially America) shifted from one based on attempted economic extortion to a brute and obvious positioning as hostages on good behaviour (meaning non-interference with German imperial expansion).

Once Germany appeared to have got past the propaganda coup of the 1936 Olympics, won some foreign policy victories that created domestic enthusiasm for the regime and Hitler had shifted from a conservative economic policy to a radical Four Year Plan directed at a war in the East (late 1936), the conspiracy theorist in Hitler saw the actual recent conduct of American Jews as 'proof' of the danger of International Jewry to his war ambitions.

Interestingly, Mussolini interpreted matters in a very similar way and flip-flopped in his previously tolerant approach to Italian Jews after the activist criticism of his Abyssinian adventure which he also put down to Jewish agitation.

Hitler seems not only to have become enraged at the Jews but to have given the space for Himmler and Heydrich (using the security apparat) to overwhelm the rule of law and actively invent an intensified and more brutal anti-semitism (but still directed at emigration) even where it did not exist before. This rage is what permitted the authorisation for Kristallnacht.

The question begged by Livingstone's intervention, though, is whether right-wing Zionism worsened the situation for German Jewry or not.

My own view (looked at from 1938 but not later) is that it did but only marginally when compared to the inherent malignancy of Nazi ideology, the understandable but damaging blockage placed upon migration by worried neighbours and the logic of Hitler's policy of war.

War was always going to be economically unsustainable for Germany and would inevitably leave behind the lines hundreds of thousands of people alienated from national socialism by national socialism itself.

The tragic logic of the situation was (after marginalisation) towards Jewish containment (a trajectory of policy that was initially and ironically regarded by many as preferable to disordered pogroms - a malign 'tribute' to the value of German order, an order that eventually murdered millions in an apparently orderly way), deprivation of resources and, eventually, systematic extermination

Perhaps the worst that could be said of right-wing Zionism was that it was not helpful to the situation in 1931-1935 and that its model of Jewish separation became a self-fulfiling prophecy that helped drive that trajectory of death.

Its American version also helped to turn a national German prejudice about Jews into a more existential matter in which the will to extermination could eventually flourish, weakening conservative restraint on national socialism by feeding into the fantasies about the power of International Jewry.

But the logic of national socialism (war) and the nature of its ideology placed the Jews in a situation of potential destruction from day one. Perhaps the dabbling and equally inappropriate ideology of right-wing Zionism merely brought the crisis forward a bit, weakened the Conservatives of course and made things a little easier for the Nazi extremists.

But we cannot make the right-wing Zionists in any way responsible for the crimes of National Socialism. If Livingstone's point is that right-wing Zionism is problematic and problematically linked to national socialist attitudes to politics, then he has that point but no more than that point.

We cannot go so far as to assume that 'Hitler was a Zionist' rather than that the Nazis supported Zionism as an option in a critical period. The right-wing Zionists proved to be right about the need for Jews to escape Europe at that time even if they contributed to the conditions that created the reason to escape.

It is as if they were complicit in forcing the issue and were sometimes half-aware of what they were doing but without being responsible for the unforeseeable tragic consequences. We are dealing with a tragedy beyond anyone's control other than the Nazis (and even their control of events has been exaggerated). They too were hurtling to their own destruction on the basis of their own fantasies.

The Austrian Tipping Point

There is more to add because the collaboration with Zionism was to continue but under very different circumstances in Austria after the Anschluss in 1938. Cesarani continues to make the point that Hitler's Judenpolitik was virtually in abeyance by this time. The Fuhrer's primary concern was the impending war effort so that appropriating Austria was merely appropriating a potential war asset. 

On the other side, Austrian Nazi activists were little more than a thieving and vengeful rabble who made their German counterparts look civilised. The German military was even forced to restore order (not the first time) under Nazi orders against the thuggery of Nazi activists in Vienna. There was to be similar confusion and ambiguity in the wake of Kristallnacht.

Neither Hitler nor the Party activists were interested in Zionism per se by this time - Hitler (with Goring as lead economic organiser) saw the Jews only as either an asset or a liability in the cause of war while the party activists just wanted humiliation and dispossession without any considered strategy. Looting and humiliation of a hated enemy was the imaginative limit of many activists.

The policy gap was eventually  to be filled by Eichmann, deputed to Vienna in March 1938 or thereabouts, who promptly introduced a policy of encouraging emigration by arranging the release of Jews from detention to recreate the 'Zionist' infrastructure.

Eichmann even made financial arrangements to help restore some economic cohesion to the Jewish community while they were being plundered by the local Austrian Party and 'legally' by Goring from Berlin. 

What Eichmann 'achieved' in Vienna was so successful locally that the same methodology was re-imported to Germany. A new strategy of expropriation (rather than just marginalisation, civil restrictions and punitive taxation) was employed that was designed to increase the asset base of the State but also, again, drive Jews to emigrate.

We cannot say that Hitler or the Nazi Party was at all 'Zionist' at this point but we can say that the Nazi security apparat was still collaborating with Zionism in 1938 although under conditions where the Zionists were no longer equal partners (as it might be argued they were in 1933) but simply tools with little choice in helping to drive the emigration policy of mid-level Nazi technocrats. 

What happened in Austria confirmed that any pretence of 'co-operation' was now over and that Zionists were simply being forced to collaborate in finding a way out for the Jewish community which, by now, to anyone with any judgment, was passing the point of no return. 

To get out if you had the money was the only possible and reasonable solution but only for middle class Jews who had some resources. The idea of being an assimilated European Jew was now a nonsense wherever the National Socialist writ or influence might run. The Zionists had won an Pyrthic intellectual victory over the assimilated German Jews.

How Zionism and Nazi Ideology Could Be Alike

It is staggering in retrospect that this shift from a 'civilised' apartheid based on identity politics (there is an irony here in that modern British identity politics owes a great deal to Ken Livingstone as Mayor of London) to full pogroms (Vienna and Kristallnacht in 1938) and the total plundering of Jewish wealth for other purposes took barely five years.

There is no reason why any European Jew at the beginning of the process could have predicted the state of affairs at the end. This lets Zionism off the hook somewhat as 'prescient' perhaps about the need to emigrate but also, in one interpretation. in collaborating for a solution that was (on paper) against the interests of liberal European Judaism.

Zionists were working with like-minded identity politicians on the other side but not realising that their temporary collaborators were infinitely more ruthless and chaotic. Nazi rationality (and it was rational from false assumptions like all activist ideologies) was based not (also ironically) on identity alone but on a preparedness to use violence and war as the means of preserving the identity.

Livingstone (if he intended this) makes a good point that right-wing Zionism was 'like' National Socialism in certain key respects (as an ideological ethno-nationalism that had limited interest in those of its own kind who did not subscribe to the ideology) but he was wrong in another.

Zionism lacked the power to be an equal of a rival ideology with full access to the resources of a major European State and it faced a philosophy of utter hatred towards its own base, the Jewish people. So, Zionists in 1933 were as deluded as to the future as virtually everyone else in that year. 

Collaboration was logical with the Nazis within their own ideological model because they were deluded. Livingstone has misinterpreted what happened by reading back from the present his own concerns about the conduct of Israel in a very different situation while rightly positioning German Interwar Zionism as on the European Political Right (whatever may have happened to it later).

However, to call his interpretation anti-semitic is wholly wrong - even disgraceful - since many assimilationist and other liberal Jews would have shared a negative assessment of Zionism and deplored the acceptance of their own removal from Europe as ethnic cleansing avant la lettre

They would equally have deplored early Zionist collaboration with Eichmann and other Nazi technocrats. They cannot have known that the Zionists would be proved right by history (indeed, the Zionists had no prescience of the extermination themselves). 

The fact that only emigrant Central European Jews were likely to survive the following decade or so was no more understood by Zionists than anyone else in 1933 - even Hitler. 

It might have been better therefore if Mann had not behaved as a bit of verbal thug himself in the street but had contested Livingstone's interpretation on what facts were available. He would certainly not have won the argument that Livingstone was anti-semitic but he would have won the argument that 'Hitler was not a Zionist'. 

Mann would, had he behaved in a measured way, have increased understanding in the general population of the nature of interwar antisemitism and why Israel has the collective mentality it often has. 

He would perhaps have reduced the instinct for antisemitism after Gaza and redirected the questioning to the specific conduct of the Israeli Government rather than the existence or general ideology of the country. 

Israel today is not the same creature as the one imagined by right-wing Central European interwar Zionists. But Mann threw away the game on irrationality and emotion, showing up a political party (in its subsequent actions which disciplined the victim of the verbal assault and not the perpetrator) that now looked no longer fit for office intellectually.

The Bolshevik 'Threat'

A key factor in all this is that the German view of the Jews was not entirely without basis historically but that the basis for Nazi claims was not adequately questioned because the average German right wing political activist, let alone 'citizen', was as intellectually lazy as our average contemporary British Labour MP. The anti-semitic history was inadequately questionedby all parties.

We have to understand the average German reaction to the disproportionate role of Jewish intellectuals in the Bolshevik-driven chaos of 1918-19 and to the role of radical Zionism and the Jewish community mobilising the American Democrats and the Left in Western Europe against Germany in 1933-1934.

Both were interpreted as being engaged in a war on German aspirations. Both were seen as actual conspiracies in operation against the German national interest. Ideological rigidity was as much on the Bolshevik and American Democrat side as on that of the National Socialists.

The Jewish community anywhere is mostly very ordinary and just like the rest of us who are not Jewish. The myth of Jewish genius is like all national-ethnic myths, harmful to the right of ordinary folk to live ordinary lives without being defined from outside, a right specifically denied by the National Socialists. 

The problem of incommensurate world views tends to lies in the activism and propaganda of a very small minority of activists and their influence on the mass. Most Germans too were basically decent, if morally lazy, just like us and most Jews.Ordinary people may not have loved the Jews but most were shocked and unhappy at the excesses of Kristallnacht ... they were not liberal but also not cruel.

Many excesses against Jews can be put down to a demographic - very young people, indoctrinated over the cohorts that received their education between 1933 and 1938, and slightly older cohorts who had suffered humilation and loss of opportunities between 1929 and 1933. These were the ones who be militarised between 18 and 21 and have received the most intensive anti-semitic indoctrination.

But returning to the Bolshevik problem, the mythologies of the War on the Jews have allowed us to evade the implications of what actually happened.  For example, the Bolshevik risings in Central Europe did look co-ordinated to Germans and were partly co-ordinated in fact. 

These risings seriously frightened the solid base of national conservatism. They were opportunistic but they looked like a 'stab in the back' especially as the Bolsheviks had deliberately stabbed the Russian war effort in the back in 1917-1918. The indoctrinated activists in their twenties and teens received a mythic history of struggle that covered the period of their childhood.

Hitler added to this mix a radical evolutionary analysis that, offensively, saw German survival as based on the same sort of imperial expansion as the British had undertaken. Germany could, however, only build an empire in one direction, eastwards. There, it faced not only a new rising Soviet empire which was perceived to be partly Jewish-led but a large number of Jews who were 'in the way'.

This imperialist war-mongering, an intensification of British and other Western imperialist attitudes but with rassenpolitik added, also involved a perceived defensive element. 

Only the Communists on the one side and Western liberals, including many American Democrats, had a critique of imperialism. Both were to prove very weak in their convictions when the opportunity for different forms of empire came their way after the defeat of the Nazis. 

Imperialism was normal in this era and the question for Germans was only how they, as a significant economic power in potential, shared in the loot. But a failure to act (in the perception of many Germans) would place Germany in the position of being a victim and not predator on economic fundamentals within a few years. 

The economy had to be put on a sound footing not for its own sake but in order to re-enter the struggle for survival that Social Darwinism (and not just in Germany) considered the normal condition of humanity. 

Whether true or not is not the point. This vision helped to create a perception of 'Jewish' Bolshevism as being not only a proven past threat but a probable future threat with a only brief window offered (in Hitler's eyes), by exercising an act of national will, to change the tide of history. 

One of the differences between Marxism-Leninism and National Socialism was that the former saw history progressively in terms of particular inevitabilities whereas National Socialism saw nothing inevitable except through weakness, lack of engagement in history and lack of will. 

Although the philosophers cannot be held responsible for the political expressions of their world view, Hegel and Nietzsche were combatting here over the nature of existence through half-educated and ignorant ideological proxies. 

The Jewish role in 1918-1919 thus became part of the 'proven' and probable threat (noting that Stalin's purges did not get under way until 1935-1936 and so the 'old Bolsheviks' had not been clearly eliminated) just as Hitler put together his war strategy in those same years. 

I often wonder whether Stalin's purges had an element of trying to lance the boil of Nazi perceptions but I have seen no evidence of this. If he did have that purpose, it would have been futile - the matter was existential for Hitler. However, it was not only the Soviets whose world view was incommensurate with National Socialism.

How American Capitalism Was Understood
  
The US situation was entirely different. It might be regarded as offering a problem of democratic politics shared with Germany insofar as, unlike the Soviet Union, National Socialism represented a form of quasi-populist pseudo-democracy in which the actions of party workers and public opinion had real political meaning. 

George Orwell has almost certainly not done us a favour in helping the liberal mind take totalitarianism as meaning far more totality of control than there was in both the Soviet and National Socialist cases. 

In both cases, the State had full control in crushing any obvious dissent against the ideology through terror but it was proportionately driven to radical positions, ones that could be inconvenient to policymakers, by activist and popular readings of the ideologies themselves. 

Liberal ideological hegemony in the West today operates in a similar way but with 'terror' replaced with manufactured shame and guilt.  

In the period 1934-1936, there was thus an American-German clash of cultures derived from the working of two domestic political forces on their respective leaderships and pulling them apart. In the US, the New York Jewish community was engaged in its own political struggle to establish itself as a voice in the American Democrat Party. 

It was divided between conservative and radical Jews, either Zionist or Leftist or both. The latter mobilised through an assertive Zionist and internationalist commitment to World Jewry whereas the former adopted a more conservative 'fraternal relations' approach with Jews overseas, listening to them rather than claiming to speak for them. 

As we have noted, conservative German Jews begged American Jews to go easy on the Nazi regime because radical activism angered the nationalistic pride of Germans (which many German Jews shared at that time).

Activism fuelled both the idea that German Jews were not loyal Germans (which would have horrified German Jews) and that there was some sort of plot against Germany in which Jews were participants.

Part of the problem was that National Socialism had two enemies in its own mind that were enemies of each other (Liberal Capitalism and Bolshevism). They could only be presented as one enemy by introducing a spurious all-encompassing Jewish influence. 

Bolshevism we have covered above but capitalism was the other threat and there is some evidence here that Zionist activism may have made things worse only because it did not understand or perhaps care what was driving German sentiment. 

The point to remember is that millions of Germans had lost their jobs and were thrust into penury in 1929 (only five years or so years after an earlier inflationary economic shock that had destroyed middle class savings) because American 'capitalists' under pressure at home had simply withdrawn their funds and left Germany in the lurch. 

Perhaps we can now understand this anger better after 2008 given the language of Occupy and their attack on banksters although the pain after our recent crash was nothing compared to the pain of Germans (and indeed most other developed nations) after 1929. 

Why the American capitalists did this was not clear to many people who had not been raised in a pure free market culture. The simple fact of the capital flight and its consequences created a gap of understanding into which conspiracy theory, anger and resentment could enter. 

However, the positions of Hitler and the Nazi leadership on the one hand and that of the mass of the Party were different, at least initially. Hitler metaphorically cut off the heads of the SA in the Night of the Long Knives but he left the Party in existence, inchoate and the basis of his power. Hitler led it but he was also led by it - and it could prove an embarrassment at times in the early years. 

The Party's version of the iniquity of American capitalism - initially subsumed under the national socialism of the Strasser Brothers - lost its alternative racial-socialist interpretation at the top with the purge of 1934 so that anger turned even more fiercely towards the anti-semitic analysis as the basis for an explanation for what was inexplicable. 

The anti-capitalist interpretation of events were only to return later (from 1936), with the anti-semitic elements even further intensified, because an attempt to accommodate capitalism under conservative leadership failed to deliver the goods in the eyes of the Nazi elite. Events in the US seemed to suggest that the failure was down to active Jewish interference in weakening the German economy.

This part of the tragedy begins because the National Socialists initially were concerned solely with strengthening the economy through traditional capitalist means but with added corporatism. Hitler not only brought the military under his wing but also the national capitalists by promising to maintain order and property. Big business offered in return to make Germany strong.

This first phase had the economy run not by Nazis but by a Conservative Hjalmar Schacht who protected Jewish economic interests to a degree, not because he liked Jews but because the Jews were major contributors to German economic strength. The assumption was that, here, that 'international Jewry' could still be made to work for Germany.

The aim was to encourage inward investment but within apartheid lines - which shows some seriously sloppy thinking and arrogance on the part of the Nazis. 

But the Nazi Party's demands for a 'Judenpolitik' (ironically moderated to some extent in the Nuremburg Laws) created a tension with the American Jewish interest in defending their 'own people' - as a people first without regard for the national German context. 

The Zionists and liberals in New York were, of course, 'morally' right but their protests led to boycotts, diplomatic problems for Germany and restraints on investment. Schacht's policies directed at controlling and taxing Jewish wealth unfairly then compounded the anger on the American side which reached to the level of the Presidency. 

By the time of the 1936 Olympics, Germany had lost a PR battle it was never going to win but it had rebuilt its economy (admittedly on sand) despite the boycotts and attacks. 

But if a German war machine could not be built against the Soviet Union with the support of the West, then Germany (around late 1935/1936), once the Olympics were out of the way, would do it on its own. But the three years of boycotts and diplomatic pressures had by now been interpreted as Jewish disloyalty and subversion. 

The picture had developed in Nazi Leader's minds that the Jews were not potentially neutral Conservative Germans to be fleeced within their economically viable social 'ghettos' but were a potential Fifth Column and a source of assets that might be used by Germans themselves. There was no incentive, as conservative policies failed, even to allow the category of German Jews to exist.

The Plundering Years

For Goring, Schacht's successor as master of Germany's economic destiny, as 1936 became 1937 and then 1938, Jewish wealth was of more use (in his opinion) to the Reich expropriated than operating within a corporatised free market system, 

We can now see where this was heading. The Anschluss (seizure of power in Austria, 1938) brought all this to a head. The Nazi Leadership had simply given up on Western approval and understanding.  Kristallnacht was just a giant 'get stuffed' gesture to the West. Germany now adopted a position of full-on nationalist defiance. 

American boycotts had, in fact, proved potentially disastrous to Germany and had caused immense worry to the Nazi Leadership whose own survival depended on delivering the economic goods after the disaster of 1929 in order to prosecute the policy of 'German greatness'. At the same time, the global economy was not exactly driving forward as 1937 turned into 1938. 

The Nazi solution was not to act 'rationally' along the lines assumed to be 'rational' by Americans (who perhaps never learn about the counter-productive nature of sanctions to existentially threatened regimes) but, on the contrary, they drove ever harder towards autarkic solutions involving expropriation. There were calculations about balance of payments that made this inevitable.

It is hard, however, to see what else American Jews could have done except protest and boycott since no action at all would have involved complicity with an apartheid regime that would have exported its ideology at Jewish expense across the world. 

Indeed, the background in the mid-1930s was a sharp rise in deliberate state antisemitism - in Romania, Poland and Italy in particular and antisemitic feeling was rising in the United Kingdom and France (and elsewhere) - in response to the German example.

The perceived lack of Western understanding of German nationalism in the 1933-1935 period was not just a Nazi sentiment either. Conservatives were clearly getting as fed up as Nazis with Western cultural intransigeance by 1935 and the sentiment was shared by many ordinary Germans.

Add to the pot the German sense of grievance over recent history, the complicated relationship between German Jews and German Nationalism and the fact that the language used by American activists (not always Jewish but also including many liberals) looked anti-German and we can see that the sense of Germany being up against the wall and on borrowed time could be widespread. 

Even German Jews found the American stance problematic. Both diplomatic networks, German and American, were now being driven by populist pressures but were also ideologically attuned to distrust the other. 

American diplomats were frustrated by the vicious crimes of the Nazi Party in the country and perhaps by the insouciance of the British. German diplomats made no headway because there was no headway to make. 

While the Nazi Leadership tended to choose effective conservatives over incompetent Nazis (as they did in relation to the Wehrmacht in its squabble with the SA and in economic policy while they were working within a capitalist rather than a pseudo-state socialist system), they would always choose Nazi policies over conservative policies when conservatism failed. 

And there were certainly many Nazi radicals ready to fill the void left by conservative failure.
  
Economic stalling and balance of payments problems, even though Schacht solved the immediate problems for Germany derived from the Crash, arose in part because of boycotts and lack of investment because of bad PR. 

Germany was not being integrated into the global economic system on its terms. It felt that it received nothing but often futile attempted obstruction in its drive to restore its economic base.  This meant that the regime could only concede to the American 'capitalists' or find an alternative expropriatory and autarkic strategy. There was no middle way.

The first required kow-towing to the West. The second meant defiance. Kow-towing would mean political suicide for the regime. Hitler himself would be unlikely to survive for long as Chancellor.

Under no circumstances could the Party in the country and so Hitler permit concessions to the degree necessary to reintegrate Germany into the world system. Such concessions would ahalt Hitler's real project - empire. Hence the firing of Schacht.

Hence also, the shift of attitude towards the Jews from being regarded as an economic asset to being regarded as a liability, and, hence, the move towards expropriation and then extermination when 'all other means had failed' (the notorious 'Final Solution'). In other words, pure evil arose in part from a clash of world views when what we had had before was just qualified evil.

Judging Hitler and the Zionists

Nothing I write should be interpreted as a 'justification' of Hitlerism - far from it. But the point here is that Hitlerism is not the creature of one demonic mythic figure but a much more complex phenomenon.

His story is an example of what happens when a) conditions become intolerable for too many people and b) a politics of response is based either on false facts (such as racism or conspiracy) and/or on false interpretations of history (Hitler was right-ish about the methods of the British Empire but was wrong about their applicability to Central European conditions). 

One might say that evil arises not from some sort of satanic malice or occult philosophy but from ignorance, disorganisation, intellectual laziness and stupidity. The poor Jews were truly in the wrong place at the wrong time. 

It could certainly happen again to some other bunch of poor sods quite as easily when all the pre-conditions are in place. What happened in Cambodia and Rwanda has at least served to shake us out of our torpor in this respect and stopped us believing that the genocidal mania of the 1940s was quite as unique as some would like to think.

To summarise where we have got to, we can say that while it is wholly ridiculous to call the Nazis Zionist, it is not ridiculous to say that Nazis and right-wing German Zionists were mutually simpatico for a brief period when the former were looking to emigration as the solution to a 'problem' created out of their respective ideologies. 

The Nazi solution was, for a period, precisely the same solution as that of the Zionists but they were solutions to different problems. And yet the solutions were similar enough that the two ideologies could cohere for a few years in a particular place. 

The right-wing Zionists were trying to out-compete conservative rivals for the affection of German Jews and this period of mutual Nazi-Zionist sympathy certainly existed from around 1932 to around 1936 but it equally certainly died with the Anschluss if not two years before with Hitler's public commitment to a war strategy in 1936. 

By 1938, any Zionists within reach of the now all-powerful Nazi machine simply became the bullied tool of the radical emigration strategy of that year, a strategy which was then stymied by the inability of the Western powers to respond by opening their doors because of internal political pressures ... this strategy was then further radicalised by war.

It is important to face up to this historical misjudgement of a small part of the Jewish community and to the fact that the original impulse of Zionism in relation to the Arabs is little different to that of the Nazis to the Jews and the Slavs (and the Imperial Anglo-Saxons to their subject peoples) in one respect - settler imperialism. 

Right-wing Americans in particular have fetishised settler imperialism because of their own history of expansion on their continent (the British now just pretend it never happened) but National Socialism was, at heart, a settler-imperialist project first and an anti-semitic project second. 

For Jews to deny this aspect of their own impulse (which pre-existed the persecution in Zionism) is part of the denial of this brief period of 'simpatico'.  The history of 1932-1938 is thus one of miscalculations by everyone - Western Powers, Jews of all persuasions and Nazis. 

The situation was unprecedented. Each party was dealing with what were to it existential problems: survival in the mind-set of the two main participants (we should not under-estimate the degree to which many Germans saw themselves as potential victims of attack and colonisation from the East) and the political and cultural risks of mass immigration in the case of the third. 

We all know the Nazis got it profoundly wrong but there is a persistent refusal to understand what circumstances created the tragedy and why, once certain wheels were set in motion, things had to turn out the way they did. 

Above all, the Nazis had a false model of imperialism (they should have listened to Lenin on the subject) while conservative Jews had a false model of the German State. The West was constrained by its own liberal democratic forms. 

The Social Darwinism of the era was one of those nut cults that science periodically produces - a bit like climate change obsessionalism today - but it was far more generally acceptable across the West at the time than many of us realise.

All that Hitler did was to follow the theory through to its logical conclusions much as modern deep greens equally dangerously follow through some eco-political ideology to its logical end as nihilism about humanity. 

But nothing is inevitable intrinsically. There would be merit in the National Socialist concept of the will in politics if only those willing things actually understood what they were willing in a rational way. 

Things start to become inevitable only if the players in the game insist on not being aware of their own magical thinking. We see exactly the same thing playing out today in the belt of idiocy from Tallinn to Kiev, an idiocy that may yet turn millions of us into flaked ash in the convenience of our own homes.

Some Contemporary Political Conclusions

So what of the Labour Party and Ken Livingstone and what of the political lessons to be learned today, at least those that go beyond trite statements like 'never again' from people who refuse to look what happened dead in the eye? Of Livingstone, we can say this. He interpreted facts without empathy and with a weak understanding of conditions at the time.

Having said this, Livingstone was at least trying to work with the facts and he was doing what we badly need to have done in our political culture - show a willingness to bring difficult data out into the open and debate their meaning transparently and accountably in order to guide future policy. 

He was, somewhat hamfistedly, engaged in a primitive attempt at political education, spoiled somewhat by his own ideological prejudices. But there is no evidence of antisemitism here, merely evidence of a lack of deeper thought that might have been made deeper with a civilised debate. 

As for the Labour Party (we should really pass over John Mann's conduct in silence), to suspend Livingstone was an act of panic by ignorant and frightened people under weak leadership who demonstrated, in this one act, that it was worse than intellectually flaccid, it was the creature of the ignorant, the lazy and the ideological. 

That it compounded its error by not disciplining an MP (or at least being fair in not suspending Livingstone) who made unsubstantiated accusations about the motivation of a colleague beggars belief unless you accept that the Party itself has become ignorant, intellectually lazy and driven by ideological conflict. 

Such a party, wherever it exists, does not deserve to rule, precisely because it reproduces the very qualities of National Socialism - ignorance, intellectual laziness and ideology - that drove it to disaster. Malice does not come into the matter. 

The Labour Party is not alone in this. As the Brexit Debate has shown on all sides, liberal democratic politics has become more than a little degenerate when it comes to political education and civilised debate. 

At its worst, it has become little more than a matter of professional half-wits posturing for advantage, an advantage dictated by their own emotionalism and posturing, designed to appeal to a population too busy with life to do more than treat politics as theatre.

But there are other lessons that are difficult from this dreadful period in human history. The first is that, yes, well, things are complicated and that it is important to be clear about one's values, to critique them in depth oneself and to consider the implications of placing those values too far ahead of the consequences of holding to them.

Part of the critique has to be a realisation that all our values are highly contingent on circumstance and are not quite the eternal verities each of us likes to think they are. An analysis of consequences cannot take place until we understand how the 'other' has come to have the values they have.

For whatever reasons, the West seemed to be both too pushy and too half-baked and indecisive in its reaction to National Socialism and, indeed, Bolshevism, not setting enforceable boundaries to behaviour early enough.

However, it also failed to find ways to relieve the pressure on events where the values of the other may not be ones we like but which might have to be recognised as sincerely held, then working to correct false perceptions and untruths and organising in advance in order to be able to police the limited but important value boundaries that had been set.

The mistakes made over Germany in 1919-1923 and then subsequently are being repeated today in the treatment of Russia with, one hopes, not such dire effects. Of course, hindsight is a beautiful thing and one cannot see how, in fact, things could have turned out easily in any other way.

The avoidance of Auschwitz and Nagasaki was probably beyond the capacities of everyone involved because everyone involved was working with limited data in real time and found their decision-making increasingly existential as each year passed.

What would have been required would have been beyond the period's capability and is beyond ours today - a rejection of imperialism in a determination to support national sovereign aspirations where they were in alignment with the popular will.

We might also refer to the need to detach the State as ordering mechanism from ethnicity and identity and a total economic system that concentrated on avoiding failed states rather than relying on the free market to decide whether ordinary people would go hungry or not.

Similarly the value boundaries are either not there, too rigid  or too extensive today as then - asserted but not policed because activists demand too much of state powers that have neither the resources nor will to do anything but exhort and, through exhortation, create further resistance, defensiveness, resentment and an understandable reversion to identity.

Activist pressure in the interwar case could have been more subtle but it needed a stronger lead from states both in setting boundaries of acceptable behaviour (involving hard decisions) but also to be put in its box when it threatened to have worse consequences on the situation of those it purported to help.

The correct balance between righteous indignation and the safe exercise of power remains a problem today. Both Zionism and National Socialism were flawed ideologies with activist issues. They were both 'essentialist' about identity, placing race and ethnicity ahead of humanity.

Communism and American Liberalism have made similar errors in placing a universalised humanity ahead of really existing humans in all their complexity and difference. German and Austrian Conservative Jews were not much better with their deluded Wilhelmine or Austro-Hungarian Nationalism.

The unravelling of ideological formulations in favour of the questioning of all grand projects is one way forward - whether it be of Europeanism or British Identity - to be replaced with the politics of rational 'sufficient' (that is sufficiently organic and sized) nation-states that are secular, limited, administratively efficient, welfarist and defensive in international affairs.

Such states should be tolerant of difference and democratic but committed to neutral political education about the hard choices that arise from shared values. But, of course, that would take political courage in an ignorant population driven by infotainment values.

The ultimate lesson of the Livingstone controversy is that we have not progressed as far from the situation in the 1930s as we might have believed. All the participants have failed to be clear about their core values, engaged in sound-bites and simplifications.

They have also failed to engage in political education (which can be done simply through a cheap web site) and engaged in a populist politics in which decisions are being made in the light of how something will appear rather than whether it is true or not.

In this respect, in terms of style, Livingstone has the edge over his critics because he has tried to avoid becoming involved in a fruitless sound bite war until his case is fully prepared and it may be that he will adjust his view as he goes back to the facts in question.

Perhaps the low point lately has not been the Livingstone Debate but the Brexit Debate. We do not need to go too deep into it but the 'flip-flop' on Europe from Corbyn, McDonnell, Momentum and the intellectuals who service this Group on the Left springs to mind.

It is still unclear, given their profound and sustained criticism of the European Project which has extended in some cases for decades, how, within a space of a few months, like a herd of wildebeest frightened by some predator, they have turned into Remainers. Either they have been talking nonsense for decades or they are talking nonsense now. One suspects a bit of both.

What seems to have happened is that their position on the most significant, indeed existential, decision made by the British population in many decades has not developed out of a considered position on values but has emerged out of the need to manage a particular political power structure in contingent circumstances.

This is precisely the sort of short term event-responding decision that sets humanity on its paths of inevitability to disaster. And, lest you think I am only having a go at the Left, we see the same daft trajectories of inevitability taking place in NATO's dealings with Russia.

There we have rigid ideological thinking on Western expansion, disregard for Russian security and the self-determination of peoples, pandering to the ethnic nationalist instincts of small powers, failure to have a strategy of viable defence and a refusal to understand the cultural roots of Russian nationalism or the effects of activist interference in the region.

These have all combined to create the possibility of a trajectory towards conflict no different from that in the 1930s. At one level, we cannot learn from history - no past event ever repeats itself exactly as before. History is not a science. At another level, we learn from history by understanding not what was done but how things were done.

This means understanding and critiquing the trajectories and the common reactions of our species to our own ignorance and the repetitions of certain ways of dealing with circumstances, the construction of ideology, the demonisation of the other, the inability to critique value, the refusal to face facts, the allowance given to activist hysterics, the weakness in asserting our own considered values where it matters and our blind acceptance of the inevitability of things.

The Livingstone debate over the relationship between Zionism and National Socialism is a marker event, showing us how we misuse history in contemporary liberal politics and how, in doing so, we are likely to follow trajectories that lead us towards disaster in the future.